Create a portfolio and backtest your creation

Recently I joined the Facebook group Canadian Dividend Investing. Someone expressed interest in the Frugal Dividend Portfolio created by Norman Rothery. The question piqued my interest and I turned to the Ai search engine Perplexity. It returned the following:

There is a way to create and back-test a portfolio of Canadian stocks and ETFs. How? Use the Portfolio Visualizer tool. It lets you construct one or more portfolios based on selected mutual funds, ETFs, and stocks. You can then analyze and backtest the portfolio returns, risk characteristics, style exposures, and drawdowns over a specified time period. To create and back-test a portfolio of Canadian stocks and ETFs using the Portfolio Visualizer:

1. Go to the Portfolio Visualizer website at https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio
2. In the "Portfolio Allocation" section, you can add the Canadian stocks and ETFs you want to include in your portfolio. You can search for and select the specific funds you want to use.
3. Set the time period you want to backtest, such as the past 3 years.
4. The tool will then analyze the historical performance of your portfolio and provide detailed metrics like returns, risk, and diversification.

This allows you to see how your selected mix of Canadian investments would have performed over the past 3 years, which can help you evaluate and refine your portfolio before investing real money. The Portfolio Visualizer is a useful tool for building and testing investment portfolios.

There are three versions of the Portfolio Visualizer and one is free. As is to be expected, it does not deliver all the bells and whistles of the other two but it is amazingly good. It is certainly worth a look. I wonder how long the free version will remain available online.

Sometimes investing is gambling and its fun!

B2 Gold (BTO) is a Canadian gold mining company with its offices in Vancouver, British Columbia, and it's a penny stock on the TSX. Recently, I read that B2 Gold is opening a mine in Nunavut early in the coming year. With my interest piqued, I did a little research.

On one hand many of the target values for the stock are being re-evaluated downward. In WebBroker, I clicked on News and read "RBC Cuts Price Target on B2Gold to $3.50 From $4." This was but one of the bulletins announcing a lowered target.

On the other hand, when I clicked on Analysts I discovered that B2 Gold in rated a Strong Buy with a price target of $5.66. That is down from the $6 plus target that B2 Gold held recently but it is still well up from my $3.60 entry point. A check with Morningstar showed that Morningstar saw B2 Gold as fairly valued. No clear cut direction here as to whether one should buy BTO.

Finally, as a dividend investor, the 5.9% dividend was a magnet or would have been if it were not for the published payout ratio of 1,981.94%! That is just a crazy number. How is that even possible?

Did I buy? Yes. Why? Just for the fun of it. For the excitement. Yes, the money invested in BTO might disappear but it also might return a very nice profit. This is a "do you feel lucky" moment and I felt lucky. So far, I've been lucky.

I bought a few thousand shares at $3.64, kept them long enough to collect a nice dividend, and then sold all for about $3.85. Including the dividend I was now up more than $700. I placed an offer to buy but a low ball offer. Yesterday, I picked up all the shares I sold and then some at $3.60 a share. Today BTO is selling for $3.77. 

The game is not over but I may well make more than a thousand dollars gambling on B2 Gold.

A Nine ETF with Cash Retirement Porfolio

Over the past few nights I have been working on the ultimate ETF retirement portfolio. The portfolio must produce something close to the present income from my present retirement portfolio, a portfolio containing mostly stocks with a smidgen of ETFs.

I like to think of my portfolio as fairly solid. Not too volatile. But it is not true. It has lost as much as 20% of its value in long, deep bear markets.What has not been volatile has been the income. With investments like Emera, Fortis, Embridge, Bank of Montreal and Telus and many more, my dividend income very rarely suffers any shrinkage.

It is a very tough order to ask an ETF portfolio to perform as well as a carefully constructed portfolio of top-of-the-line dividend paying stocks, but I think it can be done. Or maybe I should say that I hope it can be done. ETFs are self-balancing. I would love to free myself of the chore, the responsibility, of keeping my retirement income portfolio running.

Today, I created a nine ETFs portfolio with ten percent of its value in cash. If I have calculated correctly it will produce the same yield as my present portfolio. To boost the yield, I included a number of Bank of Montreal created options-boosted ETFs. Options will boost income but will also put a ceiling on capital gains. A downside to using options. The flip side is that options will reduce losses. An upside to using options.

My Nine ETF Retirement Income Portfolio was created with $1,110,000. A full ten percent was kept in cash. Deposit this in a money market fund like TDB8150 today and reap a yield of 4.55% until at least June I believe. At the end of its first day, it had gained $2,688.49. A good start.

 

My Nine ETF Retirement Income Portfolio should yield something approaching five percent and be resistant to falling quickly in bull and bear markets thanks to the generous use of options-enhanced ETFs.

It should show fair capital gains as it contains some exposure to the U.S. market. A full ten percent exposure by way of XSP from iShares. The international exposure should also show fair capital gains thanks to the inclusion of Vanguard VIDY.

At the first of next month, and every month thereafter, I will withdraw $4,200 to live just as I would if this were a real retirement portfolio. Come January, I will make an inkind withdrawal of enough stock to meet the government demands relating to annual RIF withdrawals. The stock will be transferred to an imaginary TFSA opened for the sole purpose of accepting the annual RIF withdrawals.  

You may well wonder at the inclusion of ZUT and RIT in this portfolio. I drilled down into the investments contained in the ETF portfolio leaders. I felt my portfolio needed more exposure to utilities and to real estate.

• XEI    10%
• CDZ    17.5%
• RIT     7%
• ZUT    5%
• ZWC    20%
• XSP    10%  This entry has been corrected. Originally, there was a typo. Oops!
  
• ZWH    10%
• VIDY    5%
• ZWG    5%
• Cash    10%

It doesn't look like it but these percentages were worked out using a spreadsheet. The only clues are the percentages devoted to CDZ and RIT.

If this portfolio delivers, especially if it delivers when compared to my present porfolio, I may well slowly sell my stocks and embrace my Nine ETFs Retirement Income Portfolio.

Stay tuned.

A month has gone by. It is now early May and my portfolio is down. I withdrew my first monthly payment of $3,666.66. 

If this were real, I would not be celebrating but I would not be too concerned either. Come back in a month and we will see how we are doing then.

Putting my money where my mouth is -- for real!

I did it. I added to my Emera position. I bought 100 shares of EMA. This will be a core holding. I do not intend to sell this for some time. I will hold it and enjoy a 6.07% yield on my original investment.

Emera is one of the biggest utility companies in Canada but it has extensive holdings in the United States -- especially in Florida. As a utility, it is said to have a stabilizing effect on one's portfolio. Its price should not fluctuate as much as the average stock.

Its dividend of $2.87 is not only to be trusted, it has a DGR (dividend growth rate) of 11.66% over the past three years. To ease dividend reduction concerns even more, the payout ratio is only 66.13%.

I am very happy with my purchase.

____________________________________________________________

Emera is still lingering in the depths of bear market hole. Today it is selling for even less than what I recently paid. It is at $46.41 as I write this. That is a yield of 6.2%. As a buy and hold stock, Emera is a keeper and at this price it is, in my estimation, a strong buy. -- April 18, 2024
 

Putting my imaginary money where my mouth is.

I honestly believe Telus (T) is an amazing buy today. If I didn't have so much invested in Telus already, I would be buying. Unfortunately, I put all my available cash into Telus when it was some dollars more expensive. I have lost thousands in real, hard cash.

If I could, I would put at least ten thousand into Telus today but I can't. Since I cannot put real money into Telus, I have opened a Portfolio Manager account with $10,000 in imaginary money.

That ten thousand has an unrealized gain of $84.01 already.

Each Monday, I am going to check my Telus "purchase" and post the results. 

I am not alone in my faith in Telus but I did catch a chap on BNN this morning who was very dubious of a Telus recovery and warned viewers to hold onto their cash. Don't be tempted by the Telus dividend was his position.

By the way, I may be out thousands but as long as Telus doesn't reduce its dividend, I will be reaping a nice reward for my ownership. There is a bright light at the end of this dark tunnel. By this time next year, I might be nicely out of the red and well into the black. Why today alone, I pocketed almost $2,150 in dividends. That is almost $8600 annually,

Portfolio Manager - April 1, 2024 - gain of $84.01 on Telus purchase made this morning,

 

It is Friday, April 5th and the market has closed. My imaginary Telus stock is up yet again. Still, this could be a nail-biter in the short term

Emera: a good addition to a retirement portfolio

Emera is down. It is not scrapping bottom; it could fall farther but it is still down a substantial amount. It is selling for $47.67 and yielding 6.02%. The payout ratio is a little high at 77.61% but that is still not worrisome. The Dividend Growth Rate is solid, consistent and instills confidence. The DGR hit 11.66% calculated over the past three years. Over the past decade, the DGR drops a little to 9.38%.

My goal is to have 15% of my retirement portfolio tucked away in the utilities sector. Today I am not near my goal; I have only 10% in utilities today. This might be an excellent time to add to my Emera holdings. If you are an income investor and do not have any Emera, this could be a good time to add EMA to your holdings.

By the way, I just checked the Morningstar Core Holdings recommendations and the Morningstar Income Portfolio, both Canadian. Emera is on both lists. I see this as a solid vote of confidence. In writing this, I have piqued my own interest.

The Internet is an amazing source of investment advice.

The Internet is an amazing source of investment advice. Surf the Web and learn. It is quick. It is easy. And it can be wrong. The big thing to be, along with curious, is discerning. I asked Perplexity, an Ai program I really like, where to get advice on how to be a discerning investor. Its answer: follow the advice from Investopedia.com.

The following are five tips from Investopedia on how to be discerning when doing financial research.

• Verify the credibility and qualifications of the source providing investment advice. Look for reputable, established websites and avoid anonymous or unverified sources.
  
  
• Scrutinizing claims. Do your own research to validate any investment recommendations or strategies. Don't blindly trust what you read online.
  
  
• Understand the risks and limitations of any investment product or strategy before committing your money. For instance, Investopedia explains complex financial concepts in easy-to-understand terms.
  
  
• Recognize the difference between investing and speculating. Investopedia emphasizes the importance of a long-term, diversified approach over get-rich-quick schemes.
  
  
• Develop critical thinking skills to identify potential biases, conflicts of interest, or misleading information in online investment advice.
  
  

My financial blog is an anonymous, unverified source. I realize this and so I take pains to apply the four other rules listed above and you should too.

For instance, I like REITs as a retirement investment. But REITs were yesterday's darling. Not today's. I have wisely or unwisely kept the faith. My goal is to have eight percent of my retirement portfolio in REITs. I actually have just a little more than seven percent.

I used to invest in individual REITs. No more. Instead, I have two ETFs: ZRE and RIT. ZRE is the BMO Equal Weight REITs Index ETF. It closed Friday at $20.70, yielding 5.217%. RIT is the CI Canadian REIT ETF which closed Friday at $16.15, yielding 5.015%. I may be down a little more than $7000.

On the plus side, I earn about $3500 annually from my REITs. As I have owned REITs for more than a decade, I feel confident that on the whole I am in the black. As my REITs are all held within two ETFs, I think of them as being self-balanced. ZRE follows an index approach while RIT is actually managed. Management costs money and for this reason the RIT MER is higher than the ZRE MER.

Why do I pay the higher MER? Well, the RIT holdings are quite different than those of ZRE. I like diversity. Also, RIT holds some U.S. REITs. I like that as well. And, when it comes to capital gains, RIT often bests ZRE. ZRE is the purple line in the one year graph above which I downloaded from the TSX website.

Even though it is written from an American perspective, the following linked article is quite good: How to invest in REITs. For a Canadian viewpoint, click this link: Why we invest in REITs - 5 Best Canadian REITs for 2024. This is from the TAWCAN blog. An excellent blog by a very wise Taiwanese Canadian.