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My latest crack at a "Retirement Portfolio"

Monday, July 19, 2021

The market is falling; now may not be the time to sell

The market tumbled a lot today. It was a big drop and a lot of folks believe they lost a lot of money. I'm hearing talk of selling, getting out, saving what's left of the savings before it too disappears. This is rarely the right approach. 

Repeat after me: I have NOT lost money in the market until I sell. Paper losses are not real losses. They are unrealized losses. I have written about all this in the past. None of this is new. Please go back and read some of my old posts before you dump your stock in a panic.


I am not a financial consultant. I am a retired photojournalist. I have opinions formed from a lifetime of on and off investing. Read my blog posts but keep your brain in gear. I am interested in the thoughts of other retirees and to start the conversation I am posting my side of what should be a multi-sided discussion.

Cheers!

Tuesday, July 13, 2021

3 ETF retirement portfolio allows 4% withdrawal annually

How can one invest one's retirement savings, enjoy a yield of more than 4% while benefiting from capital appreciation as stocks in the portfolio gain value over time? I am posting the following $500,000 retirement portfolio as my attempt at meeting all retirement demands. (Clicking on the Portfolio Report image should enlarge it and make it legible.)

 

For a benchmark, I am comparing my results to the well known Couch Potato's recommendation of simply putting all one retirement savings into the iShares complete portfolio in one ETF: XGRO. Buying XGRO gives an investor a portfolio holding shares in companies around the glove plus bonds as well. (Clicking on the Portfolio Report image should enlarge it and make it legible.)

 

Date                  Portfolio                                       Value                Withdrawals 

July 12, 2021    XEQT VDY ZPAY 7 12 21          $500,000        $0
July 12, 2021    XGRO Couch Potato 7 12 21     $500,000       
$0

July 20, 2021    XEQT VDY ZPAY 7 12 21         $503,465          $0                               July 20, 2021    XGRO Couch Potato 7 12 21    $498,609         $0

July 27, 2021    XEQT VDY ZPAY 7 12 21          $505,071           $0                               July 27, 2021    XGRO Couch Potato 7 12 21     $501,173           $0

July 31, 2021    XEQT VDY ZPAY 7 12 21          $502,099          $0                              July 31, 2021    XGRO Couch Potato 7 12 21     $500,384          $0

Next Dividend Payment Date: September, 2021 -- XEQT: $0.44/unit                         Next Dividend Payment Date: August 10, 2021 -- VDY: $1.52/unit
Next Dividend Payment Date: August 4, 2021 -- ZPAY: $1.92/unit                          Next Dividend Payment Date: September, 2021 -- XGRO: $0.48/unit

If you have a self-directed portfolio, you have the ability to chart stocks and ETFs over whatever time-frame you choose. I wondered if XDIV (purple line) would be a better choice than VDY (heavy green line) for the pure Canadian content in my 3 ETF portfolio. As you can see, VDY wins over the charted time period.

Note: ZPAY is the dark blue line. ZPAY did not dip in value nearly as much last March as most other stocks and ETFs. This chart seems to add weight to the idea that ZPAY can be used as a replacement for bonds in a portfolio when it comes to a stable value while delivering much better dividend income. Until I see a good argument for some other mix, I'm sticking with my original three ETFs: XEQT, VDY, ZPAY.

I used a spreadsheet to calculate the portfolio mix. First, I invested enough into ZPAY to generate almost the full 4% withdrawal. I then added a small amount of VDY to increase my exposure to Canadian equities while adding to the healthy dividend income.

The remaining funds were invested in XEQT (red line on graph) for exposure to a large mix of global equities including Canada. The biggest components of this ETF are U.S. equities. XEQT is marketed as a compete portfolio in one ETF. iShares has done a fine job of achieving this goal.