Retirement Porfolio Portfolio At $997,693.50

In late June I posted a retirement portfolio for a Canadian retiree with $1 million to invest. I put all the retirement savings into stock and it immediately took off. I soon had more than $50,000 in unrealized gains. Then the market went into a tailspin. My imaginary portfolio dropped to less than $970,000. Ouch!

Even though the portfolio was losing money, it continued pumping out dividend income. I was able to withdraw $3,333.33 at the first of each month starting in August. At this point I have withdrawn a total of $13,333.32 and the portfolio itself has almost recovered all the value it had lost. 

My retirement portfolio now has a value of $997,693.60. If you want to see the portfolio I posted, please click the following link: My latest crack at a retirement portfolio.

Stay tuned. This portfolio and its management will get interesting come income tax time. There is an interesting wrinkle on the horizon. Hint: I meet the government minimum withdrawal demands with in-kind withdrawals rather than cash.

Retirement Porfolio Has Shrunk to $970,985.

Look above the date at the top left of each of my money blog posts and you will see this link: My latest crack at a "Retirement Portfolio". Click on the link to see a retirement portfolio created at the end of June in 2023. If this were a real, functioning, million dollar retirement portfolio, a total of  $13,333.32 would have already been removed to provide the mythological retiree with a monthly income of $3,333.33. The first payment was made in early August and will be increased annually to meet RIF withdrawal rules.

Note, 30% of each withdrawal is withheld to meet future tax demands. The retiree only sees 70% of the withdrawal for meeting living expenses. Although, one could argue that 100% of the withdrawal goes to living expenses as taxes are certainly a living expense.

Today the million dollar retirement portfolio is worth only $970,985.98. The market is in decline at the moment but the dividend income will continues undiminished. I imagine it will grow a little in 2024. Dividends often increase but cuts are not unknown.

At the age of 65 the government mandates 4% of the a RIF or LIF portfolio must be withdrawn. This mandated percentage jumps to 4.17% in the year one turns 66. It continues to jump each year until one reaches the age of 95. At 95 the withdrawal rate hits 20% and remains there. The goal of the government is clearly to bleed the retirement portfolio dry. For more info on the withdrawal rules, click this link.

If you come back in the new year, you will find that I make my mandated withdrawals in-kind. This is the way I operate in reality and I am going do the same online with this test account. I will transfer stock from my imaginary RIF to an imaginary TFSA. 

The cumulative maximum contribution space in a new 2024 TFSA is $95,000. This means all the dividend income from this year's withdrawal can be protected and not only for this year. Dividends earned in a TFSA are sheltered from the ravages of income tax. It is called a tax free savings account, after all.

Although I will not have to pay tax immediately on the transferred amount, I will have to pay the tax next year. To avoid the future shock of a spring income tax bill, I will withhold 30% from each monthly payment to cover future tax costs.

I often catch the falling knife.

I have often caught the falling knife. The falling knife is a stock which is falling in price and one makes the mistake of buying long before it has hit bottom. Why does someone buy such a stock? The answer is easy: it looked like a great deal when compared to its recent highs.

For instance, a little over a year ago Bank of Montreal was selling for about $155. Then, it started falling. When it got down to about $117, I bought a couple of hundred shares. Recently, it sold for as little as $102.67. Yesterday it closed at $104.53. I am down about $2500 on my recent buy.

Guided by history, I believe BMO stock will revisit its old highs within three years and most likely in far less time than that. I may well be up $8000 in three years and I will have collect approximately $900 in dividends in those three years. I may make approximately 12.9% annually despite having caught a "falling knife."

For another example, let's look at my recent purchase of TC Energy (TRP). I paid $45.89 for my shares. I pulled the trigger early but the stock recovered quickly. The price is now at $47.24. I am up $270. The icing on the cake is the dividend. I have already collected $186.

The lesson I am trying to impart here is buy good companies at good prices and you will do just fine. Don't worry about calling the bottom. That is something that is almost impossible to do.  Don't berate yourself when you buy early. It happens. In the scheme of things, it is not important. If the spread grows grossly large, you can always average down if you still have confidence in the stock.

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By market close Friday, TRP was at $49.92. I was now up $806 in unrealized gains plus $186 in dividends. 

Sometimes, "catching the falling knife" is not the right metaphor. Sometimes, one "dodges the bullet."

Ryan Bushell: a fine financial expert on BNN

Ryan Bushell is the President and Portfolio Manager at Newhaven Asset Management Inc. I have followed Bushell for more than a decade and he has impressed me. He is one of the few financial experts appearing on BNN whose views I find worthwhile.

In doing the research for this post I came across a post by Michael O'Reilly. O'Reilly calls Bushell one of the best performing experts that he follows. I concur.

In the past three months, Bushell has rated the following stocks buys: Algonquin Power (AQN), CIBC (CM), Fortis (FTS), Pembina Pipeline (PPL), Telus (T), TC Energy (TRP). I mention these stocks as I have encouraged friends and relatives to buy them on recent dips. I firmly believe all these are excellent, conservative calls. One could not go too far wrong having a little of each in his/her portfolio.

BNN Bloomberg reports that Bushell believes the recent fall in AQN share price is overdone. This company is nearly two-thirds regulated utilities, including water utilities. The business is not that different from where it was in the past. Whether it sells the renewable energy business or not is of no consequence. 

Bushell see the core business having more value than the share price indicates. Even though there may be one more dividend cut, Bushell believes this is still a good time to buy. Bushell may be a bull on AQN but the bears have a fine, and very defensible, position.

Algonquin's financial performance has been underwhelming recently. It reported a loss of US$253.2 million in the quarter ended June 30, 2023. The loss was attributed to unfavourable weather conditions reducing customer demand and resulting in less energy produced at its wind facilities. And the company's earnings per share (EPS) for the trailing twelve months (TTM) was -$0.38.

I am overexposed when it comes to AQN. I am not going to add to that exposure in the near term but I may add to my holdings in the future.

The TD Bank is a buy

The TD Bank is at $79.80 right now with a resulting yield of 4.8%. A little over a year ago, BMO stock was selling in the range of $109. 

Technically, the bank is only suffering a correction but it feels like its in bear market territory nevertheless.

Banks are not the investment of choice right now but they will be back in vogue someday and prices will recover. Meanwhile, I'd like to point out that the TD Bank has gone almost almost as long as the Bank of Montreal without once cutting its dividend. I cannot forecast a bottom but it is clear that the TD Bank is a fine buy right now and as you hold it you will be paid for your patience.

Bank of Montreal looking like a buy

The Bank of Montreal is at $109.26 and yielding more than five percent today. A little over a year ago, BMO stock was selling for more than $150. I cannot forecast a bottom but I can say, with some confidence, that BMO is a damn fine buy right now. And I'd like to point out that the Bank of Montreal has gone almost 200 years without once cutting its dividend.

Enbridge looks like a buy, at least to me.

My Enbridge dance card is full. I like putting a ceiling on how much I own of any one stock. I think of this as risk management through diversification. But, if you don't have a lot of Enbridge eggs in your basket, today might be a good time to consider some increased exposure to the Canadian pipeline operator.

Enbridge was in the news last month when it announced the proposed purchase of three utilities from Dominion Energy (D.N) for $14 billion including debt, creating North America's largest natural gas provider and doubling its gas distribution business.

The deal is for East Ohio Gas, Questar Gas, and Public Service Co of North Carolina and will consist of $9.4 billion in cash and $4.6 billion of assumed debt.

Enbridge is branching out. It is no longer simply a pipeline provider. Previously it was in the news for the windmill farms it is constructing in the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of France. Clearly, Enbridge wants to be a company with a future and it is ensuring that future today.

At $43.34, the stock price at this moment shouts "Buy me!" and folk acquiring the stock will enjoy a dividend of 8.233% as they wait for the capital appreciation to kick-in.

If I didn't own as much as I do, I would be a buyer. Who knows, I may yet yield to temptation and add just a little to my holdings. It is hard to resist.