When Dividend Investing, the Payout Ratio Does Not Tell the Whole Story

For the most part, I am a dividend investor. Oh, I hold some ETFs for diversity but mainly I hold dividend-paying Canadian stocks. I've written about dividend paying stocks in the past. I have always told my readers to pay attention to the Payout Ratio when buying a stock for the dividend. Too high a payout ratio indicates the dividend may not be secure.

I have come to think this "rule" is not a rule at all. Lots of good, secure dividends are paid by company's with payout ratios above 100%. If the payout ratio is the percentage of a company's earnings going to meet its dividend demands, how is it possible to pay out more than 100%? I will try and give you an answer but if you'd like an explanation from a more knowledgeable source try Morningstar. (Click the link.)

Take Enbridge Inc. (ENB). It has a payout ratio of 123.64%. Yet, ENB has consistently paid its dividend, without missing a payment or reducing it, for the past 29 years. What is going on? I turned to Perplexity for an answer.

"Pipeline companies like Enbridge often base their dividend payout ratios on Distributable Cash Flow (DCF) due to the financial characteristics of their operations. Here’s a detailed explanation:

 

Capital Expenditure Demands

1. High Capital Expenditures: Pipeline companies typically face significant capital expenditure (capex) requirements to maintain and expand their infrastructure. These expenditures can include costs for building new pipelines, upgrading existing ones, and ensuring regulatory compliance.
2. Impact on Earnings: High capex leads to substantial depreciation charges, which can reduce reported earnings. Since these accounting entries do not reflect actual cash flow, relying solely on net income can present a misleading picture of a company's financial health.

Cash Flow Characteristics

1. Stable Cash Flow Generation: Pipeline companies benefit from relatively stable cash flows due to long-term contracts and regulated rates, which provide predictable revenue streams regardless of fluctuations in commodity prices.
2. Distributable Cash Flow as a Metric: DCF represents the cash available for distribution to shareholders after accounting for necessary capital expenditures. By focusing on DCF, companies can provide a more accurate reflection of their ability to sustain and grow dividends.

Enbridge's Payout Ratio Strategy

1. Target Payout Ratio: Enbridge has established a target payout ratio of 60% to 70% of DCF. This range allows the company to balance returning cash to shareholders while retaining sufficient funds for ongoing capital projects and operational needs. (I calculated the ENB DCF at 70.4% today by multiplying the annual dividend by 100 and dividing this by the Cash Flow. Using WebBroker, both figures are found under Fundamentals)
2. Financial Stability: By maintaining this payout ratio, Enbridge aims to ensure that its dividend payments do not jeopardize its financial stability, allowing it to continue investing in growth opportunities while rewarding shareholders consistently."

This brings me to company like Telus (T). When I tried to check the Telus earnings, cash flow, and payout ratio, I discovered that all fields were blank. No earnings, no cash flow and therefore no ratios. Yet, Telus pays a 7.33% dividend -- $1.61 annually. Again, I ask, what is going on? This time I used Google Gemini to get the answer:

"Telus (T) is able to pay a dividend while reporting neither cash flow nor earnings thanks to to several factors:

1. Cash Flow Generation: While specific cash flow numbers may not be publicly disclosed, Telus is a mature telecommunications company with a stable cash flow generation. This cash flow can come from various sources, including subscription fees, equipment sales, and network infrastructure investments.

2. Dividend Policy: Telus has a well-established dividend policy, with a focus on maintaining and growing its dividend over time. This commitment to shareholders is a key consideration for the company.

3. Financial Planning: Telus likely has a robust financial planning process that takes into account future cash flow expectations and dividend obligations. This allows them to assess their ability to maintain the dividend even in the absence of immediate earnings or cash flow reports.

4. Debt Management: The company's debt levels and interest expenses play a significant role in its ability to pay dividends. A strong balance sheet and disciplined debt management practices can help ensure sufficient funds for dividend payments.

5. Regulatory Environment: The regulatory environment in Canada, particularly for telecommunications companies, can provide stability and predictability in revenue streams. This can contribute to a consistent cash flow and support dividend payments.

It's important to note that while Telus may not have explicitly reported cash flow or earnings numbers, they likely have internal financial metrics and projections that guide their dividend decisions. "

Lastly, I checked the Telus Dividend Investment page on the company website to see if I could find some published numbers. I discovered that Telus has an expressed goal of making semi-annual dividend increases ranging from 7% to 10% annually through to the end of 2025. The declared payout ratio is 60% to 75% of free cash flow based on prospective basis. But, read the small print: "There can be no assurance that we will maintain a dividend growth program through 2025."

Did you notice that the free cash flow is based on "prospective basis". This is a key point. It indicates  the company is looking forward and making an estimate of its future cash flow. Actual free cash flow is a more accurate measure of a company's ability to pay its dividends.

 

TD Cowen is maintaining its BUY rating. Morningstar has Telus on both its Canadian Core Pick List and its Canadian Income Pick List. Plus, Morningstar rates Telus as a five star stock; it is severely undervalued in the eyes of the Morningstar analysts.

Is the Telus dividend secure? It appears to be at the moment but . . .

 

For more information on Dividend Investing go here: https://www.td.com/ca/en/investing/direct-investing/articles/dividend-stocks 

Ryan Bushell: a fine financial expert on BNN

Ryan Bushell is the President and Portfolio Manager at Newhaven Asset Management Inc. I have followed Bushell for more than a decade and he has impressed me. He is one of the few financial experts appearing on BNN whose views I find worthwhile.

In doing the research for this post I came across a post by Michael O'Reilly. O'Reilly calls Bushell one of the best performing experts that he follows. I concur.

In the past three months, Bushell has rated the following stocks buys: Algonquin Power (AQN), CIBC (CM), Fortis (FTS), Pembina Pipeline (PPL), Telus (T), TC Energy (TRP). I mention these stocks as I have encouraged friends and relatives to buy them on recent dips. I firmly believe all these are excellent, conservative calls. One could not go too far wrong having a little of each in his/her portfolio.

BNN Bloomberg reports that Bushell believes the recent fall in AQN share price is overdone. This company is nearly two-thirds regulated utilities, including water utilities. The business is not that different from where it was in the past. Whether it sells the renewable energy business or not is of no consequence. 

Bushell see the core business having more value than the share price indicates. Even though there may be one more dividend cut, Bushell believes this is still a good time to buy. Bushell may be a bull on AQN but the bears have a fine, and very defensible, position.

Algonquin's financial performance has been underwhelming recently. It reported a loss of US$253.2 million in the quarter ended June 30, 2023. The loss was attributed to unfavourable weather conditions reducing customer demand and resulting in less energy produced at its wind facilities. And the company's earnings per share (EPS) for the trailing twelve months (TTM) was -$0.38.

I am overexposed when it comes to AQN. I am not going to add to that exposure in the near term but I may add to my holdings in the future.

I'm told that this is not a bear market; oh?

The Canada Stock Market Index (TSX) reached an all time high of 22,213.07 in April of 2022. Right now, as I write, the TSX is at 18986.60. It is off it high by 3226.47 or 14.5%. This is a correction. It must suffer a dip of 20% or more before a bear market is declared. It is not unreasonable to imagine the TSX dropping to 17770 or even less. But even if it doesn't, this is a nasty pullback.

My portfolio is down a little more than the market. I'm down about 15% and it hurts. Downturns like this are not unexpected but that fact does not soothe the financial pain. The losses may be paper losses but the accent is on losses and not paper.

The worst part of this moment is that I did not see it coming. I thought the market had bottomed and was turning around. I bought some Telus, some TC Energy, some TD Bank and Bank of Montreal. All these recent purchases have lost money. Now, I must guard my remaining cash and dole it out carefully.

On the bright side, thanks to the crashing stock values, the yield on my RIF has grown to 5.85%. With RIFs the government sets the annual mandated withdrawal rate. This is a rate increases with each passing year. For instance, at retirement at 65 the withdrawal rate is 4%. Ten years later, at 75, the rate is 5.82%. My rather high dividend income means I will not have to sell any stock at fire-sale prices to meet the government withdrawal demands. See the withdrawal rate table here: RRIF Minimum Withdrawal.

The value of my stock holdings may be down but I feel confident that my dividend income will not shrink to anywhere near the same extent. For instance, income from the big Canadian banks should be safe. The Bank of Montreal has an impeccable dividend history. It has gone almost two hundred years with nary a dividend reduction. The TD Bank can make almost as remarkable a claim.

Hugo Ste-Marie, a strategist at Scotia Capital, wrote in a report published last Wednesday: "Despite a challenging environment, keep in mind that over the long run, dividends matter a lot, accounting for the lion’s share of equity returns."

To underline that point, the Scotia Capital report broke down the growth of a $100 investment in the Toronto Stock Exchange benchmark from 1956 to today. With dividends, it would have grown to $29,000. Without dividends, it would be only $3,600.

Dividends contributed nearly 90 per cent of total returns over the past seven decades. In other words, it pays to stay invested. Buy and hold pays over time.

Few investors know when a correction or a bear market will appear but both tend to only stay for a short, but painful, visit. The average bear market in Canada lasts just under a year. That said, a two year bear market is not unheard of. Bear markets are difficult to call and far more frequent that most investors believe.

But bear markets tend to be shorter than bull markets and not as frequent as corrections. The average bull market roars along for more than five years and can last much, much longer. A rule of thumb, based on the U.S. market, says a third of time the bear rules and two thirds of the time the bull runs free. Ride out the bear and ride the bull.

For a good take on bear markets, read the linked article from The Motley Fool: What is a Bear Market? In writing this piece, I found the following post very interesting and worth a read: Statistics and facts about the stock market in 2023.

Building a retirement portfolio is easy

When I retired I put my savings into the stock market. I discovered putting together a retirement portfolio in neither difficult nor all that risky. This is a classic buy and hold portfolio that rides out bear markets with grace.

The first stocks I purchased were bank stocks. The Royal is Canada's largest bank. Today it is paying  dividend of $5.28 for a yield of 4%. TD and the Bank of Montreal are two other must-haves when it comes to Canadian banks. TD pays a dividend of $3.84 for a dividend yield of 4.4%. BMO is paying $5.72 for a yield of 4.5%.

• BMO - 4.5% dividend yield
• CM - 6% dividend yield
• RY - 4% dividend yield
• TD - 4.4% dividend yield

One Canadian bank down on its luck is CIBC. Its depressed share price translates into a 6% dividend yield from a dividend of $3.40. Hold these four banks and you have checked off the financial holdings in your portfolio. Note: These Canadian banks are famous for not cutting their dividends. Invest $60,000 divided equally among these four bank stocks and you can count on about $2835 annually in dividend income.

Next, I would turn to the utilities sector and put about 15% of my retirement savings in a mix of Emera, Fortis, Hydro and possibly a little in Alta Gas. I think of Alta Gas as more of a utility than a pipeline.

• Emera - 5.3% dividend yield
  
• Fortis - 4.1% dividend yield
  
• Hydro - 3% dividend yield
• Alta Gas - 6% dividend yield

Put $30,000 into these four utility stocks, 4% in all but Hydro, which get 3%, and you can count on about $1410 annually in dividend income.

Pipelines are another solid investment paying fine dividends. All retirees have money invested in pipelines even if they do not know it. The Canadian Pension Fund, CPP, has a large exposure to pipelines. Buy Enbridge (ENB), TC Energy (TRP) and Pembina (PPL) and you have three good, solid companies. Note the generous dividends. There is a good reason the CPP likes pipelines: the dividends.

• Enbridge - 6.5% dividend yield
• Pembina - 5.7% dividend yield
• TC Energy - 6.6% dividend yield

Put $30,000 divided equally among these three pipeline stocks and you can count on about $1880 annually in dividend income.

This brings us to telecoms. One simply must have exposure to this segment of the market and there are lots of good companies in which to park some retirement money. Think Bell, Cogeco, Quebecor and Telus. 

• Bell - 6% dividend yield
• Cogeco - 4.4% dividend yield
• Quebecor - 3.8% dividend yield
• Telus - 5.2% dividend yield

Divide $40,000 equally among these four telecom stocks and you can count on about $1940 annually in dividend income.

With only a $160,000 invested, our retirement income portfolio is already generating more than $8000 a year. It is a rare retired couple who have not saved at least $160,000 toward their retirement. The present portfolio contains fifteen different companies. This is approaching what many claim is the ideal number of investments for a small portfolio. 

If our retirees have a bit more to invest, it is time to consider putting a little into the American market. It is, after all, the biggest game in the world. A couple of American-based ETFs does not seem unreasonable. I'd put $40,000 into the States with 66% in ZWA, the BMO Covered Call Dow Jones Industrial Average Hedged to Cdn. Funds ETF, and 34% in XUS, the iShares Core S&P 500 Index ETF. (The ZWA is here for the dividend. Seniors need income. If you do not need the income, put more into XUS.)

• XUS - 1.4% dividend yield 
• ZWA - 6% dividend yield

Invest $40,000 divided as detailed in these two ETFs and it should generate about $1775.

Not having anything invested outside North America would be seen by some as a basic error in building a properly diversified portfolio. I am not one of these folk but if you are I would think of adding an ETF like VIDY to the mix. A Vanguard ETF, VIDY has a very low MER and pays a nice dividend of 4.35%.

If I had $25,000 I'd add some VIDY and increase my income by $1085 annually.

• VIDY - 4.35% dividend yield

At this point, I just might call it quits. I could add some health care but the stuff I would buy does not deliver the dividend income I need in retirement. And what do I like in health care? Think TDOC and XHC.

Every portfolio I have ever had contained something that was there just for fun, to provide some excitement. I wouldn't add a lot of the following but I would be comfortable putting $25,000 in my portfolio split evenly between BN, Brookfield Corporation, and BAM, Brookfield Asset Management.

• BAM - 3% (estimated) dividend yield
• BN - 1.4% dividend yield

Brookfield is a fine holding in any portfolio. BAM, a recent spin-off, promises to pay a good, if not great, dividend. BN has a posted dividend yield of 1.4%. My hope is that the Brookfield investment will deliver excellent capital gains along with a fair dividend to pay one for holding the stocks.

There, we are done. A quarter of a million invested and an income of approximately $11,400. That's close to a thousand dollars a month. This portfolio delivers the almost mythical four percent without breaking a sweat. 

If one does not already have a TFSA, tax free savings account, I'd get one. Putting as much of this investment as possible into a TFSA makes a lot of sense. Avoiding some taxes makes a dividend income in retirement go farther.