Catching the falling knife

When the Bank of Montreal got down into the $118 range late last week, I saw a buying opportunity. But, I didn't buy. I held out in the hope that I could buy at a price low enough to give a yield of at least five percent.

Monday the price of Bank of Montreal stock wobbled about but, in the end, it was a down day and I bought in at $117.60. My yield was five percent right on the nose.

The Bank of Montreal is one of the Canada's largest banks. It has been paying dividends for going on two hundred years. It has gone almost two complete centuries without cutting its dividend. Buying Bank of Montreal stock for its dividend seems a very safe purchase. The dividend is almost guaranteed. Sadly, the stock price is not.

I only bought a hundred shares as I already had a nice amount of BMO shares in my portfolio. My income jumped $588 annually but I have also lost about $177 on paper thanks to the loss in value of the stock and the loss may well grow. The amount of the drop was not unexpected but the speed was.

I would not be surprised to see Bank of Montreal drop even more. It may even set a new low for the past year. If it does, I am buying another one hundred shares. Until then, I am going to sit quietly, watch from the sidelines and lick my stock-purchase wounds. The five percent yield will help me recover.

TC Energy (TRP) In my book, today this is a buy.

TC Energy (TRP) is flirting with its low for the past year. Also, it is off its high for the past year by about 25%. This puts the stock well into bear territory. I believe TC Energy is a solid company paying a dividend that a retiree can trust -- a dividend yielding more than 7% today.

Can TRP go deeper into bear territory? Sure. But, I don't see it losing any amount that I would find frightening. It has absorbed some big losses already. I cannot see more of the same happening in the near future.

Moments ago, I put my money where my mouth is; I added to my TRP position. I look forward to my first dividend in a little more than three months. My retirement income has taken a $744 pop with this purchase.

Risk free comes at a price

If you want a risk free investment, buy a GIC. You may only make 3.5% on a four year term but at maturity all your investment will be returned. Oh, it may have lost buying power if inflation runs at more than 3.5% but you will get all your money back. Guaranteed.

 

If 3.5% is not enough yield, why not take on a little risk and put 2% of your portfolio in IGM stock. IGM is off its recent high by 21.2%. It is selling for $40.71. A price that puts it in bear territory. Buying today, you will enjoy a dividend income of 5.53% for the next four years. That much is pretty much guaranteed. IGM is not overly generous with its dividend. Its payout ratio is quite reasonable. The dividend should be secure.

Morningstar lists IGM on both its Canada Core Pick List and its Canada Income Pick List. Only eight stocks receive this buy recommendation in the recent monthly report. At the moment, Morningstar gives IGM four stars. This means Morningstar believes IGM will most likely reward investors with capital gain.

During the March 2020 bear market, IGM dropped in price to about $21. Clearly, the IGM price can fall a lot more. A paper loss is possible. On the bright side, it climbed out of the depths of the 2020 bear market in little more than a year. If you can afford to hold, its price should recover. (IGM was selling for $43.20 at market close Mar. 7th, 2023.)

My take

I ended up buying some REITs wrapped up in the ETF RIT. I the units were $17.95 with a yield of 4.5%. These units partially replaced the units of XRE that I sold at the beginning of the recent correction. I sold the XRE high and I bought the RIT at a much lower entry price point.

One thing you never get with a GIC is a profit surprise and with a yield of only 3.5% you are hardly being paid to be patient or otherwise.

Make a note to yourself and revisit this advice in four years. See if I was right when I pronounced RIT or even IGM a better investment than a GIC. With a GIC you have almost locked in a guaranteed loss. With RIT or IGM, but especially RIT, I like to think I am risking making a tidy capital gain and banking a generous dividend. That is a risk with which I can live.