Is it time to take some profits?

The market is up. It is off its highest highs but it is still up. Is it time to take some profits off the table?

For years I have simply practised buy-and-hold. Oh, I have been known to sell a little but not nearly enough. For instance, I held a lot of Nutrien when it was selling for about $145. I should have sold three quarters of my holdings but I didn't. By the time I sold, Nutrien was selling for $75. My tardiness cost me tens of thousands of dollars.

The money market fund I in which I park my cash, is no longer paying interest of four percent or more. Still, I am going to sell some of my portfolio and keep the cash in a money market fund (TDB8150). The hard decision here is what exactly do I sell?

I'm leaning to selling stock that yields less than the interest earned by cash in a money market fund. I am also considering parting with some of my stock that is selling for more than its target price.

If there is a downturn coming in the next 12 months, I will be ready to take advantage of any bargains being offered in the stock market.

Algoma Central Corporation Is Eye-catching

Algoma Central Corportation (ALC) is eye-catching, at least when it comes to my eyes. I became aware of ALC when I worked at a small newspaper in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario. A lot of companies with Algoma in their name had their roots in the Sault. Algoma Central Corporation was one of them.

Algoma Central operates the largest fleet on the Great Lakes and it has interests in ocean shipping as well. To an outsider, like me, it seems well positioned within the marine transportation logistics sector.

One downside to ALC is the cyclical nature of the shipping business but to an investor with a positive outlook this volatility means this is a stock that can be bought low and sold high repeatedly. I'm a positive investor. I like volatility.

As my interest in ALC grew, I decided to see who exactly has money in this shipping company. I discovered the Jackman family of Toronto holds something like 27% of the business through their large interest in E-L Financial Corporation. 

But that is not the end of the Jackman family interest in ALC. The Jackmans, I believe, also own a controlling interest in Amogla Holdings and Amogla Holdings holds about 30% of the ALC stock. E-L Financial and Amogla Holdings together own something in the neighbourhood of 57% of the ALC stock.

The third biggest shareholder is Macquarie Investment Management Limited. This is an Australian company committed to sustainable investing with the aim of delivering excellent long-term results to its clients. Is it working? You better believe it. With a staff of more than 20,000 worldwide, Macquarie reported a net profit after tax of  $3.522 billion U.S., for the 55th consecutive year of profitability.

The more I looked into ALC the more I liked it. But, I am a dividend investor. Is ALC the right fit for my style of investing? It has a dividend yield of 5.33% today. Nice, and it is worth noting that the company has a history of increasing its quarterly dividend. A further bonus, ALC has paid a special dividend in three of the past five years. Since 2018 ALC has paid a special dividend of  $4.75 per share.

Algoma Central Corporation's low valuation with a focus on debt reduction, its growing dividend yield, and its strategic, global fleet expansion all say "buy" to me.

My alternative to a portfolio manager

I have a friend approaching 80. He is a very bright guy and so when he told me that he handed his assets over to a manager, I stopped and listened. I have steered cleared of managers since getting badly burned by London Life and its mismanagement of my accumulated insurance policy savings. Was I wrong?

My friend's manager, whom I gather collects a percentage of the investment under management, has put my friend's savings in a number of mutual funds. I assume this means he pays a fee on each mutual fund plus the overall portfolio management fee. 

All these fees sound onerous. Still, if the manager delivers returns that best an asset allocation ETF like XEQT, I can see the benefit. XEQT, a complete global equity portfolio in one ETF, has delivered strong returns over the past year. YTD return is 15.97% and the 1-year return is 22.37% when the dividend is included. The fund has an annualized return of 12% since its  2019 inception.

Is XEQT suitable for my friend? Maybe not. At his age, he is no longer comfortable with the large losses a pure equity investment can suffer. That said, XEQT has some stablemates that add bonds to the mix.

For more info please click here: All-In-One ETF Portfolios.

Like my friend, I am old. Losses that once would have been recovered with the passing of time may not be recoverable today. For an example, think of Algonquin Power and Utilites Corp. (AQN). Given enough time, say a dozen years or more, my AQN losses might be erased. Today, it is quite possible my time will run out before a full recovery is realized.

The thing is, unlike my friend, I don't care. All I am concerned with is income, dividends. To this end I invest in from 20 to 30 individual dividend paying stocks. I pretty well ignore the day to day price changes. Yes, I have lost a lot on AQN and I've lost a lot buying Telus and Bell as well. But, in the grand scheme of things, the losses are manageable and the income solid. I make more than five percent on my retirement investments.

Note: the following was copied from my spreadsheet. My investments are broken down into sectors and I try to keep my exposure to no more than the percentage shown. Each separate investment also has a cap. I will leave it to you to set your own limits. The one piece of advice I have is do not put more than five or six percent in any one stock. Generally, I start getting uncomfortable when the exposure is greater than three or four percent. An investment shown in a bold, italic font is one that I do not own at this time but it is on my buy list.

Sectors

Financials 30%

BANK OF MONTREAL 4%

BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA 3%

CDN IMPERIAL BK COMMERCE 4%

BROOKFIELD AST MGMT-A LVS 3%

BROOKFIELD CORP CL-A LVS 3%

NATIONAL BANK OF CDA 4%

ROYAL BANK OF CANADA 5%

TORONTO DOMINION BANK 4%

Total of the above 30%

Utilities 20%

ALGONQUIN PWR&UTILITIES 2%

ALTAGAS LTD 3.5%

BROOKFIELD INFRASTRUCTURE PTNRS 3.5%

CANADIAN UTILITIES LTD. 3%

EMERA INCORPORATED 4%

FORTIS INC 4%

Total of the above 20%

Communication Services 10%

BCE INC 1.5%

COGECO COMMUNICATIONS INC 1.5%

QUEBECOR INC CL-B SV 2%

ROGERS COMMUNICATIONS INC 2%

TELUS CORP 3%

Total of the above 10%

Energy 10%

ENBRIDGE INC 3.5%

PEMBINA 3%

TC ENERGY 3.5%

Total of the above 10%

REITs 8%

BMO EQL WGT REIT INDX ETF 4%

CI CANADIAN REIT ETF 4%

Total of the above 8%

U.S. S&P 500 12%

ISHRS CORE S&P500 IDX ETF 12%

Total of the above 12%

International – Mainly Europe 4%

VIDY

Total of the above 4%

Materials (Agriculture) .75%

NUTRIEN (NTR)

Total of the above .75%

Metals and Mining (Industry) 1%

LABRADOR IRON (LIF)

Total of the above 1%

Food Products (Consumer Staples) .75%

ROGERS SUGAR (RSI)

Total of the above .75%

Transportation

ALGOMA CENTRAL (ALC) .75%

MULLEN GROUP (MTL) .75%

Total of the above 1.5%

Cash 2%

Cash 2%

Total of the above 2%

Total of all -- 100%

Algonquin Power, AQN, may suffer near-term volatility

Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. (AQN) lost about a dollar on the open this morning. Is this a harbinger of stock price moves to come or has the damage been done and is it time for the healing to begin?

AQN reported its second-quarter financial results. The adjusted EBITDA increased 12% and the adjusted net earnings year-over-year rose 16%. The company has reduced its common share dividend again, this time by approximately 40% to $0.0893 per share. The reduction is somewhat larger than anticipated. This second dividend reduction continues the move towards financial prudence as AQN positions itself as a pure-play regulated utility.

 

A note here about the anticipated payout ratio. Management believes the revised $0.3572/share annual dividend will result in a payout ratio of 60%-70% once the current regulated asset base approaches its full earning potential. The closer the company comes to a 60% payout ratio, the less chance another dividend cut will occur.

 

The company also announced it is selling its renewable energy business for approximately $2.5 billion. Some investors had hoped the renewable energy business would sell for considerably more. For some, this announcement was a disappointment. Still, the sale will strengthen the AQN balance sheet as it moves its focus to being a regulated utility operation. In the long term, this transition should enhance the quality of earnings thus creating long-term value for shareholders.

 

The overall market sentiment appears cautious thanks to the dividend cut. The ongoing strategic changes only add to the uncertainty. Today the price dropped approximately a dollar on all the news. In the short term the stock could lose more share value but it probably will not be a lot as the negative news appears to be priced into the stock value now.

 

Christopher Huskilson, the current Interim CEO of Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp., is  the former CEO of Emera Inc. Huskilson has over 20 years of experience in the energy sector. Now with Huskilson at the helm, Algonquin is enjoying excellent leadership. When Huskilson expresses belief in the company's ability to improve returns and reduce external funding needs, his words inspire confidence.

 

Still, I would not buy Algonquin today. That said, I would not sell Algonquin at a loss today. There are indications that the AQN stock price may climb over the short term and, although I am not happy with it, I can live with the 4.8% dividend calculated on the closing price ($7.42) last Friday.

Dealing with today's falling markets

The markets all around the world have gone into tailspins. Why? There are lots of theories, all have a wee bit of truth, but no one has a compete handle on what is driving the losses. So, what does one do? I agree with The New York Times writer: do nothing. Be patient. This will pass and surprisingly soon. There is even a good chance that this global tumble will be followed by some markets actually reaching new highs.

If you have been in the market, Canadian or U.S., for some time, you can take solace in your portfolio bottom line. Even after today's crashing numbers, I bet you are very nicely in the green. Stay focused on your wins and you will get through this intact.

Perplexity compares XEQT to mutual funds

I asked Perplexity how owning XEQT, the complete Canadian portfolio in one ETF,  compares to owning a number of carefully chosen mutual funds to create a complete, diversified portfolio. Perplexity answered:

Answer:

 

The iShares Core Equity ETF Portfolio (XEQT) is an all-in-one ETF designed to provide broad diversification across global equity markets. It includes a mix of underlying ETFs that cover various regions and sectors, making it a convenient option for investors looking for a simple, diversified equity portfolio. Key features of XEQT include:

 

XEQT provides broad diversification with exposure to over 9,500 stocks across global markets, including US, Canadian, international developed, and emerging markets.

 

This level of diversification helps spread risk across various sectors, countries, and company sizes.

Low cost: With a management expense ratio (MER) of 0.20%, XEQT is significantly cheaper than most actively managed mutual funds

Lower fees can have a substantial impact on long-term returns.

Simplicity: As an all-in-one ETF, XEQT eliminates the need for manual rebalancing and simplifies portfolio management

You can achieve a globally diversified portfolio with just one investment.

Automatic rebalancing: The fund managers handle annual rebalancing, ensuring the portfolio maintains its target asset allocation

This helps in selling high and buying low, potentially boosting returns over time.

Tax efficiency: ETFs are generally more tax-efficient than mutual funds due to their structure and lower turnover.

Long-term growth potential: XEQT is designed for long-term capital growth, making it suitable for investors with a long time horizon and higher risk tolerance

 

Risk tolerance: XEQT is a 100% equity portfolio, which means it can be more volatile than balanced funds that include bonds. (My add: If you insist on bonds in your portfolio, consider XGRO for 80% equity and 20% bonds or XBAL for 60% equity and 40% bonds. I would never even consider holding more than 40% bonds even though this option is offered.)

 

Ensure XEQT aligns with your risk tolerance and investment goals.

Time horizon: Due to its all-equity composition, XEQT is best suited for investors with a long-term investment horizon (5 or more years with the accent on "more years".)

Home bias: XEQT has a 25% allocation to Canadian stocks, which is higher than Canada's global market capitalization. While this can provide some benefits for Canadian investors, it's important to be aware of this overweight.

 

When all is said and done, what we all want to know is how does XEQT perform when compared to mutual funds? Answer: XEQT more than holds its own.

 

XEQT: Historical performance has been strong, with notable returns over the past few years. For example, XEQT returned 17.05% in 2023, which is competitive with other investment options

Mutual Funds: Performance varies widely among mutual funds. While some actively managed funds may outperform the market, others may under-perform, especially after accounting for higher fees. For instance, the RBC Select Aggressive Portfolio returned 12.71% in 2023, which is lower than XEQT's performance

 

In conclusion: For investors seeking a simple, low-cost, and globally diversified equity portfolio, XEQT can be an excellent replacement for a portfolio of mutual funds. It offers broad diversification, professional management, and automatic re-balancing at a fraction of the cost of most mutual funds. 

 

However, as with any investment decision, it's important to consider your personal financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment goals before making a switch. If you decided that you prefer active management and are willing to pay the higher fees, you may still find value in a carefully chosen portfolio of mutual funds.

 

After Perplexity answers a question, it posts a number of suggestions for areas for future investigation. In this case, Perplexity suggested some of the following questions:

 

• What is the historical performance difference between XEQT and a carefully selected mutual fund portfolio?
• How do the distribution yields of XEQT compare to those of mutual funds?
• How does the risk of XEQT compare to other ETFs?
• How does the risk of XEQT compare to a mix of mutual funds?

Perplexity: a fine intro to Ai

What is the Ai program Perplexity? Is it a search engine?

Definition: Perplexity is a search engine that answers queries using natural language predictive text, utilizing sources from the web. It surpasses traditional search capabilities by incorporating AI-driven features that aim to provide more accurate, contextual, and comprehensive answers to user queries.

Launched in 2022, Perplexity is based on OpenAI's GPT-3.5 model and a standalone LLM with NLP capabilities for its free product. Pro version accesses GPT-4, Claude 2, and others. If you don't understand this answer, try asking Perplexity to clarify it.

Click the link to try Perplexity for yourself.

My next post will s demonstrate Perplexity in action.