Algonquin Power, AQN, may suffer near-term volatility

Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. (AQN) lost about a dollar on the open this morning. Is this a harbinger of stock price moves to come or has the damage been done and is it time for the healing to begin?

AQN reported its second-quarter financial results. The adjusted EBITDA increased 12% and the adjusted net earnings year-over-year rose 16%. The company has reduced its common share dividend again, this time by approximately 40% to $0.0893 per share. The reduction is somewhat larger than anticipated. This second dividend reduction continues the move towards financial prudence as AQN positions itself as a pure-play regulated utility.

 

A note here about the anticipated payout ratio. Management believes the revised $0.3572/share annual dividend will result in a payout ratio of 60%-70% once the current regulated asset base approaches its full earning potential. The closer the company comes to a 60% payout ratio, the less chance another dividend cut will occur.

 

The company also announced it is selling its renewable energy business for approximately $2.5 billion. Some investors had hoped the renewable energy business would sell for considerably more. For some, this announcement was a disappointment. Still, the sale will strengthen the AQN balance sheet as it moves its focus to being a regulated utility operation. In the long term, this transition should enhance the quality of earnings thus creating long-term value for shareholders.

 

The overall market sentiment appears cautious thanks to the dividend cut. The ongoing strategic changes only add to the uncertainty. Today the price dropped approximately a dollar on all the news. In the short term the stock could lose more share value but it probably will not be a lot as the negative news appears to be priced into the stock value now.

 

Christopher Huskilson, the current Interim CEO of Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp., is  the former CEO of Emera Inc. Huskilson has over 20 years of experience in the energy sector. Now with Huskilson at the helm, Algonquin is enjoying excellent leadership. When Huskilson expresses belief in the company's ability to improve returns and reduce external funding needs, his words inspire confidence.

 

Still, I would not buy Algonquin today. That said, I would not sell Algonquin at a loss today. There are indications that the AQN stock price may climb over the short term and, although I am not happy with it, I can live with the 4.8% dividend calculated on the closing price ($7.42) last Friday.

Dealing with today's falling markets

The markets all around the world have gone into tailspins. Why? There are lots of theories, all have a wee bit of truth, but no one has a compete handle on what is driving the losses. So, what does one do? I agree with The New York Times writer: do nothing. Be patient. This will pass and surprisingly soon. There is even a good chance that this global tumble will be followed by some markets actually reaching new highs.

If you have been in the market, Canadian or U.S., for some time, you can take solace in your portfolio bottom line. Even after today's crashing numbers, I bet you are very nicely in the green. Stay focused on your wins and you will get through this intact.

Perplexity compares XEQT to mutual funds

I asked Perplexity how owning XEQT, the complete Canadian portfolio in one ETF,  compares to owning a number of carefully chosen mutual funds to create a complete, diversified portfolio. Perplexity answered:

Answer:

 

The iShares Core Equity ETF Portfolio (XEQT) is an all-in-one ETF designed to provide broad diversification across global equity markets. It includes a mix of underlying ETFs that cover various regions and sectors, making it a convenient option for investors looking for a simple, diversified equity portfolio. Key features of XEQT include:

 

XEQT provides broad diversification with exposure to over 9,500 stocks across global markets, including US, Canadian, international developed, and emerging markets.

 

This level of diversification helps spread risk across various sectors, countries, and company sizes.

Low cost: With a management expense ratio (MER) of 0.20%, XEQT is significantly cheaper than most actively managed mutual funds

Lower fees can have a substantial impact on long-term returns.

Simplicity: As an all-in-one ETF, XEQT eliminates the need for manual rebalancing and simplifies portfolio management

You can achieve a globally diversified portfolio with just one investment.

Automatic rebalancing: The fund managers handle annual rebalancing, ensuring the portfolio maintains its target asset allocation

This helps in selling high and buying low, potentially boosting returns over time.

Tax efficiency: ETFs are generally more tax-efficient than mutual funds due to their structure and lower turnover.

Long-term growth potential: XEQT is designed for long-term capital growth, making it suitable for investors with a long time horizon and higher risk tolerance

 

Risk tolerance: XEQT is a 100% equity portfolio, which means it can be more volatile than balanced funds that include bonds. (My add: If you insist on bonds in your portfolio, consider XGRO for 80% equity and 20% bonds or XBAL for 60% equity and 40% bonds. I would never even consider holding more than 40% bonds even though this option is offered.)

 

Ensure XEQT aligns with your risk tolerance and investment goals.

Time horizon: Due to its all-equity composition, XEQT is best suited for investors with a long-term investment horizon (5 or more years with the accent on "more years".)

Home bias: XEQT has a 25% allocation to Canadian stocks, which is higher than Canada's global market capitalization. While this can provide some benefits for Canadian investors, it's important to be aware of this overweight.

 

When all is said and done, what we all want to know is how does XEQT perform when compared to mutual funds? Answer: XEQT more than holds its own.

 

XEQT: Historical performance has been strong, with notable returns over the past few years. For example, XEQT returned 17.05% in 2023, which is competitive with other investment options

Mutual Funds: Performance varies widely among mutual funds. While some actively managed funds may outperform the market, others may under-perform, especially after accounting for higher fees. For instance, the RBC Select Aggressive Portfolio returned 12.71% in 2023, which is lower than XEQT's performance

 

In conclusion: For investors seeking a simple, low-cost, and globally diversified equity portfolio, XEQT can be an excellent replacement for a portfolio of mutual funds. It offers broad diversification, professional management, and automatic re-balancing at a fraction of the cost of most mutual funds. 

 

However, as with any investment decision, it's important to consider your personal financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment goals before making a switch. If you decided that you prefer active management and are willing to pay the higher fees, you may still find value in a carefully chosen portfolio of mutual funds.

 

After Perplexity answers a question, it posts a number of suggestions for areas for future investigation. In this case, Perplexity suggested some of the following questions:

 

• What is the historical performance difference between XEQT and a carefully selected mutual fund portfolio?
• How do the distribution yields of XEQT compare to those of mutual funds?
• How does the risk of XEQT compare to other ETFs?
• How does the risk of XEQT compare to a mix of mutual funds?

Perplexity: a fine intro to Ai

What is the Ai program Perplexity? Is it a search engine?

Definition: Perplexity is a search engine that answers queries using natural language predictive text, utilizing sources from the web. It surpasses traditional search capabilities by incorporating AI-driven features that aim to provide more accurate, contextual, and comprehensive answers to user queries.

Launched in 2022, Perplexity is based on OpenAI's GPT-3.5 model and a standalone LLM with NLP capabilities for its free product. Pro version accesses GPT-4, Claude 2, and others. If you don't understand this answer, try asking Perplexity to clarify it.

Click the link to try Perplexity for yourself.

My next post will s demonstrate Perplexity in action.

Advice for a friend approaching retirement

I have a good friend who has just retired. He puzzles over what he should do now with his investment savings. He is no longer saving for retirement but he IS retired. The day that will never arrive has arrived.

My friend worked all his life. He will be collecting a tidy monthly sum from CPP. His wife didn't work as long as he did but she too will collect CPP but a lot less and some years in the future. She is a few years his junior.

Of course, they both will collect OAS. She will have to wait a few years before her cheques begin arriving but she will be 65 sooner rather than later. Time passes quickly.

My friend also has an excellent pension. This will be the main source of retirement income as his wife, if she has a company pension at all, will have much smaller pension than her husband. 

In the short term, my friends will be fine. They will be able to live with their reduced income until all sources of retirement income mature. At the point that they are both receiving CPP and OAS plus hubby's pension, they will have more than enough money to live very nicely.

The thing is, they both have retirement savings plans. What to do with these six figure accounts? This is not as easy a question to answer as one may think. I'd suggest they have at least three options:

Cash out the accounts, take the money and run. This is not possible if an account is a locked-in-plan of some kind. And, at any rate, this is not a good idea. Forget it. Never squander retirement savings.

Convert RRSPs to RRIFs and locked-in-plans to LIFs and be ready to withdraw annually the amount demanded by the government. The withdrawal increases with each passing year. Google it. In my opinion, there is only one place to put the money: equities. Equities increase in value in step with inflation and with any luck will increase in value quicker than inflation erodes that value.

How does one invest in equities? 

Set up a self-directed investment account with your bank, if possible. TD, Royal, Scotia, CIBC and others all offer this service. There are only three investments with which I concern myself:

• Money market funds. These are paying something in the order of 4.3% today with no risk to capital.
  
• Direct equity ownership. The big rule here is "diversify". Try to own no less than 20 stocks and no more than 30. Consider weighting your portfolio to stocks paying a good dividend.
  
• ETFs. My fave here is XEQT. This is an entire portfolio in one purchase, one ETF. If one does not need dividend income, XEQT may well be the way to go. Buy, hold and watch it grow in value over the years. XEQT holds no bonds but more than 9000 stocks from markets all around the globe.
  

Stay away from bonds. Do a little research and you will soon agree; for the small investor, bonds are not worth holding. And stay clear of mutual funds. ETFs are a "yes" and mutual funds are a "no". It is that simple. 

I don't have a good pension. I need cash flow. I own two dozen or so good, solid, dividend-paying stocks. The dividends pay the bills. My friend has a good pension. He and his wife do not need the cash flow. If I were him, I'd simply buy XEQT and let the units sit and grow in value. I might spend the small dividend income as "mad" money.

A TD Rep Critiqued My Portfolio: Passed!

I got a call late last week from my neighbourhood TD branch to arrange an interview with one of their experts who would critique my portfolio. I have always said "no thanks" to these invites but not this time. I decided to toughen up and take some criticism.

So, today at 10 a.m. sharp I was sitting in a small office with a TD rep hearing how well I was doing. He liked my all equity portfolio. He understood why I had absolutely no bonds in my portfolio and agreed with my decision. Quelle surprise! 

I explained how I made all the withdrawals from my RIFs and LIFs demanded by the government as withdrawals inkind. Withdrawals above the minimum, the ones that are taxed immediately, I withdraw as cash. He could see my reasoning and as my approach has been working for the past fifteen years or so, why disturb something with a solid history of working. If it ain't broke . . .

We sat and chatted for an hour. I escaped being given a dressing down. He had one suggestion and only one suggestion: I should maximize my effort to reduce the money held in my RIFs and LIFs. Upon the death of my wife and me, the money in these registered accounts will be income for my estate and may face an income tax of something like 53%. He told me to find some ways to pass more money onto my children and pass less onto the government.

I liked this rep and will spend some time with all the info he gave me as I departed.

Bank of Montreal Looking Good

The Bank of Montreal is down $1.59 right now to $119.69. Its dividend is at 5.18%. Its price could drop more. It has sold for much less in the past year.It dropped to a low of $102.67. I own enough BMO but if it got down to $102.67 again, I'd be buying.

If I did not own so much BMO today, I believe I would be adding to my holdings. The last BMO I added was in the $117 range. I have not regretted the purchase. Analysts see the stock going to $130.59 in the coming year.

For a retiree this is a no-brainer. The Bank of Montreal has the longest run of any Canadian bank of never missing a dividend. The run is approaching two centuries. If one is buying BMO for the dividend, for the 5.18%, your dividend is pretty safe, but, of course, there are no 100% guarantees. A $20,000 investment would return a little more than a thousand dollars annually if the stock was purchased today and it is not hard to see a possible gain of $1800 in the coming year.

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The Bank of Montreal closed last Friday a full three dollars lower than the price posted above. BMO is now yielding 5.3%. Nice. I am watching this stock closely. There will come a time when it will be hard not to add a hundred shares to my holdings.