It's time to examine corrections and bear markets

The markets are down today and many are crying that the sky is falling. The end is nigh. Poppycock!

Let's take a close look at where we are today and when we enter correction territory and, if things worsen, a bear market.

The TSX is down 250 today. The DJIA is down 520. The S&P 500 is down 60 and the NASDAQ is down 185. And I assure you, this is not a time to panic. It is not even time to make a blanket buy recommendation. Many stocks will still be trading near historical highs.

My Million Dollar Retirement Portfolio DEMO is at $1,183,000 at this moment. It recently touched $1,206,000. There is $61,350 in cash. At what point is my DEMO portfolio entering correction territory? Remember a correction is when equities retreat from 10-20% from the high of the past year.

 

• Portfolio High Point: $1,206,000
• Total Equity Value was: $1,206,000 - $61,350 = $1,144,650
• Correction Boundary for Equities = $1,144,650 - 10% = $1,030,185
• Correction Boundary for Total Portfolio = $1,091,535

• Portfolio High Point: $1,206,000
• Total Equity Value was: $1,206,000 - $61,350 = $1,144,650
• Bear Market Boundary for Equities = $1,144,650 - 20% = $915,720
• Bear Mkt Boundary Total Portfolio = $1,091,535 = $977,070

A truly bad bear market would be something like 40%. Bears can be worse but 40% would be a big one. So what does a big bear look like? Do the math: $750,000 is close. And what does one do at such a moment? Buy. This could be a once in a lifetime sale of equities. Keep in mind, the deepest bear markets rise phoenix like very quickly. A three year recovering would be a very long recovery period. A little over a year would be a good guess. 

The lesson? Don't panic.

Oh, when do I start buying? A drop of 17% in the equity value of any individual stock makes me think "Buy." 

I don't go all in, though. Put no more than a third to a half of your cash into the market. Keep a good chunk for future buying if the market continues to deteriorate. If the bear gets truly fierce, you want to have kept some powder dry as they say.

A look under the hood of the Morningstar Cdn. Index List

 No need to write anything for this post. Morningstar has done the writing and done it very well. Have you ever wondered how Morningstar determines what stocks it includes in its set of sturdy dividend payers. Please read and discovered the answer:

Sturdy Canadian Dividend Stocks

Annuities

I don't like annuities. And I'm wrong. I'm not alone in passing on annuities. We may all be wrong. As we age we lose some of our mental capabilities. Lose enough and you become a senior mark easily snookered by smooth talking relatives or swindlers. An annuity purchased between age 75 and 80 may make a lot of sense as insurance against being ripped off. 

I'd say more but why bother? I found a great site: 7 Best Annuity Calculators in Canada. If this site just talked about annuity calculators it would be a good site to visit. But it also examines some common questions raised by those thinking of buying an annuity.

• Is an annuity your best option?
• How large an annuity do you need?
• What's the best online annuity calculator for Canadians?
• When should one buy an annuity?
• How does one purchase an annuity?

There is a very good book on Retirement Income for Life by Frederick Vettese. It has an excellent section looking at annuities. This book changed my mind when it comes to annuities. Depending on our finances when I turn 75, I have my fingers crossed, I may buy an annuity despite having bad mouthed them for years.

Another attempt at a 4% yield portfolio

I created a million dollar portfolio in response to advertising bumph sent to me by Fisher Investments Canada. It was well written; it was well researched; it was accurate. And I thought I could do better. Why? Because over the past decade I have. If you'd like to read more, please click the LINK.

But how many of us have a million dollars in savings when we retired? Not the majority of retirees, I'd wager. So, I have designed a second retirement portfolio but this time it is a much more modest portfolio of only $340,000. I will be following this portfolio in the coming months and we'll see how well it performs.

To create a portfolio I use a spreadsheet. I believe my spreadsheet is self-explanatory. I am posting a screen grab of my spreadsheet which I have named in honour of couple facing retirement.

To track the performance of this portfolio over time, I have created an emulation account using TD WebBroker Portfolio Manager. I have invested in nine Canadian dividend-paying stocks and four ETFs to add diversity to this portfolio. I have not invested in bonds. I don't believe bonds will add balance in the near future but will act as anchors pulling portfolios down. Every January I am going to withdraw 4% in cash to emulate the money withdrawn from real portfolios used to fund retirement. 

(And yes I know that there is one error. VDY cost $9.99 to buy and not $12.22. Oops! I confess that I entered the data, I created the jpg and I'm simply too bushed to fix this inconsequential error. It will have no effect on the success or failure of this portfolio. None.)

May 1st        Portfolio Value       $340,000

May 3rd        Portfolio Value       $341875 (Jumped $1875 after Monday open.)

Keep it simple, cheap and diversified

This was written with a relative who is nearing retirement in mind. They are considering dumping their mutual funds in favour of opening a self-directed portfolio account with TD WebBroker.

_________________________________________________________________________

There is a belief that new investors when starting out should steer clear of individual stock purchases. Not true. Some carefully chosen, dividend-paying stocks are an excellent addition to any portfolio with one caveat: the new investor's portfolio must have enough value to make diversification possible. Diversification is the "free lunch" of investing. The less money an investor has the more money that should be directed ETFs.

A small portfolio, $25,000 or less, can be well diversified if one buys just three ETFs: 

• VDY (35%)
  
• VFV (40%)
  
• VIDY (25%)
• the percentage in each ETF is flexible
  

VDY (Vanguard Cdn. High Dividend Yield Idx ETF) contains 48 stocks. The MER is only .21% and the annual yield is 4.16%. The top ten holdings are:

• Royal Bank of Canada (RY)
• Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD)
• Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)
• Enbridge Inc (ENB)
• Bank of Montreal (BMO)
• TC Energy Corp. (TRP)
• Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM)
  
• Manulife Financial Corp. (MFC)
• BCE Inc. (BCE)
• Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ)

VFV (Vanguard S&P 500 ETF) contains 509 stocks. The MER is only .08% and the annual yield is 1.28%. The top five holdings are:

• Apple Inc. (AAPL)
• Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)
• Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)
• Facebook Inc. Class A (FB)
• Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL)

VIDY (Vanguard Developed ex North America High Dividend Yield Idx ETF) contains 533 stocks. The MER is only .30% and the annual yield is 3.44%. The top five holdings are:

• Nestle SA(NESN)
• Roche Holding AG(ROG)
• Toyota Motor Corp.(7203)
• Novartis AG(NOVN)
• Unilever plc(ULVR) 
• Personally, I own VIU but I've noticed that between the two, VIDY is often the best performer.

A new investor should always keep in mind that professional investors, financial advisors paid to beat the market, often fail. Why should a newbie think they can do better than the pros? So stick to the basics, keep it simple, cheap and diversified. For a few individual, high yielding Canadian stocks consult the Morningstar Canada Income Pick List for suggestions like the following:

• Enbridge yielding 7.3%
• BCE yielding 6.17%
• Emera yielding 4.56%
• IGM Financial yielding 5.87%.
  

Following the above advice, a new investor with a small portfolio ($75,000) could realize an annual income of $3190 or 4.25%. (10% of the portfolio in each of the four stocks and remainder divided among the three ETFs.) If the investor has more funds available, up to $20,000, keep this in a cash fund (TDB8150) and have some money available for emergencies or for buying stock in a bear market.

Successful investing is about losing money with aplomb

Two friends are preparing for retirement and they are thinking of investing. I'm worried. They have never paid attention to the market. They are newbies and the market devours newbies. Folk who enter the market in their 60s have stayed out of the market for a reason. They are smart enough to see gamblers as marks and, admit or not, in their gut they see the market as a place for gamblers.

When the market goes down, they bail. It is hard to tough out a bear market. It is tough to see 20% or more of your money disappear and this is what happens during a bear market. The market is up about twice as often as it is down. Bull markets follow bear markets. Period. Investors know this. Investors buy when stocks are on sale. Newbies bail, lick their financial wounds, take their remaining money and head for the door.

The market is a place to invest and investments go up and down. Buy good companies that pay good dividends and which don't tend to cut the dividend during down times and one will be fine. Just don't put any money into the market you may need at some point in the next few years.

And all companies can suffer unforeseen serious financial problems. Limit the amount invested in any one company. If the company folds, so be it. C'est la vie.

The answer is to diversify. Invest in fifteen or twenty great companies. Morningstar posts an excellent portfolio for Canadian investors looking for dividend income. Some banks post the Morningstar suggestions or make them available to those with self-directed portfolios.

The saying if you can't stand the heat stay out of the kitchen applies when it comes to the market. If you can't stand the heat, read huge losses, then stay out of the market.

• Invest in good, solid, dividend-paying companies
• Buy and hold
• Do not try trading. Trading is not for the inexperienced.
• Do not try timing the market. Most of us do and most of the time it does not work.
  
• Diversify: buy stock in a dozen or more companies in different sectors of the market.
• Set limits: Most agree one should not invest more than five percent to 10% of a portfolio in any one company.
• Do not invest money you may need in the next few year. Bear markets can last years.
• Keep a minimum of five percent in cash for emergencies. I have about ten percent at the moment.
• And be prepared to buy and hold in good times, easy, and in bad times, hard.

 

On a positive note. The market is up approximately twice as often as it is down. The up times tend to last longer than the down times. The market tends to go higher in bursts. 

Still, the down times are killers. I cannot emphasize this enough. Understand your risk tolerance. (My risk tolerance is rather poor. My wife is the gutsy one. She steers us through the bad times with aplomb.)

And I must give much deserved attribution for the two images to QuoteInspector.com.

My Million Dollar Retirement Portfolio after four months

I wrote a post entitled "Fisher Investments Canada 15 Minute Retirement Plan." I had read the Fisher brochure of the same name and disagreed with it. Disagreeing was easy but was I right in disagreeing? Could I do better? I decided to find out.

That was a little more than four months ago. I designed my own Million Dollar Portfolio based on what I had read in the Fisher brochure. Today I am up $148,750.39 and I've withdrawn $3,330 each month to emulate the money a retiree would require in order to live.

I am using the Portfolio Manager software supplied by TD Waterhouse. It is specifically designed to allow one to test their personal investment theories. If you are interested, here is the report. Click on the image, you will see the whole, uncropped image. Tap the three keys (Shift and Control and +/=) and do this all at once. The image should enlarge.

I know: "Past performance is not indicative of future results." But, it does give one a buffer. That is a fact. A nasty bear market may cut 25% from a portfolio's value--maybe even more. Clearly it is better to enter the bear market with more rather than less.

If such a catastrophe should befall my portfolio tomorrow, I would expect to bottom out at around $875,000. That's the bad news. The good news is that my income should not get cut by more than 15%. I would still see a dividend income of $31,300. 

I did the math and I should be able to invest about $26,460 in the bear market, one must take advantage of the sale on investments, and still be keep ample cash to cover the shortfall for the next four years. 

With some luck, when the bear market lumbers off, my Million Dollar Retirement Portfolio might actually be able to deliver on its 4% promise. If not, I may well still have a little cash to cover some shortfalls in the following years.

My little test has shown one thing, when you get into the market is important. In other words, luck is important. What puzzles me is this: a big firm like Fisher can, to a certain extent, make its own luck. It can under promise and then meet its self-set easy goals. Clients would be happy and Fisher would have added investment room when compared to a single investor like me.

My gut fear is that financial advisors are tempted to skim off the extra profits generated by bull markets for themselves and pass the losses of the bear markets on to the clients. I knew an advisor once who loved black and white and only black and white. Heck, even his huge, backyard pool was black with white accents. Being so addicted to fashion demanded a lot of green and this financial advisor did not seem to want in that area. My bet is not one of his clients had a pool coordinated to their favourite colour.