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My latest crack at a "Retirement Portfolio"

Wednesday, January 9, 2019

Comparing investment approaches or apples to oranges?

If you've read my post before this one, you will know that I am running a test of highly respected and frequently recommended investment approaches. I like to describe what I am doing as comparing approaches. My hope is that this description will sidestep the "comparing apples to oranges" criticism. And it's a very valid criticism, I might add.

A portfolio that is one hundred percent equities is clearly going to be more volatile than one that contains a good percentage of bonds. A volatile portfolio has wider swings in value. In good times the one hundred percent equity portfolio will soar higher and during corrections or bear markets it will settle deeper into the financial hole. Bonds in a portfolio smooth out the ride somewhat. The more bonds the smoother the ride.

The market, so far this year, has been performing very well. Therefore, it is no surprise that the Morningstar Canadian Income Portfolio is leading the pack. It is a one hundred percent equity based portfolio.

Likewise, it is no surprise that my own personal portfolio is doing well. You see, I have jettisoned almost all bonds from my holdings. There are a few hiding in a couple of mutual funds. (Yes, mutual funds. I hold my head down in embarrassment. Why do I hold these two monthly income funds? The two funds are my weak attempt to soften the great volatility my portfolio endures.)

I need the dividend income to live in retirement and have made a conscious decision to suffer through market pullbacks in return for increased dividend income. I must confess, it is a tough ride. I only succeed because my wife has nerves of steel.

My test, so far, is revealing what we could have surmised from the various portfolio compositions. More bonds, less benefit from a rising market. Portfolios with a high equity content are outperforming in this market.

So, why do a test like this at all? Well, for one thing, it appears the Couch Potato Assertive Portfolio  based on ETFs is, for me, a better bet than the Couch Potato Portfolio that uses the e-Series funds from the TD. I have pitted these two approaches against each other in the  past and each time the e-Series portfolio tends to trail the ETF one. Note the word tends. In the past, the e-Series portfolio has outperformed the similar ETF based portfolio now and then.

And there has been one big surprise: XGRO, an entire portfolio in one ETF, is doing mighty well. It is holding down second place this morning. And it contains a few bonds. Nice. I may give XGRO a look for my granddaughters' RESPs.

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