Successful investing is about losing money with aplomb

Two friends are preparing for retirement and they are thinking of investing. I'm worried. They have never paid attention to the market. They are newbies and the market devours newbies. Folk who enter the market in their 60s have stayed out of the market for a reason. They are smart enough to see gamblers as marks and, admit or not, in their gut they see the market as a place for gamblers.

When the market goes down, they bail. It is hard to tough out a bear market. It is tough to see 20% or more of your money disappear and this is what happens during a bear market. The market is up about twice as often as it is down. Bull markets follow bear markets. Period. Investors know this. Investors buy when stocks are on sale. Newbies bail, lick their financial wounds, take their remaining money and head for the door.

The market is a place to invest and investments go up and down. Buy good companies that pay good dividends and which don't tend to cut the dividend during down times and one will be fine. Just don't put any money into the market you may need at some point in the next few years.

And all companies can suffer unforeseen serious financial problems. Limit the amount invested in any one company. If the company folds, so be it. C'est la vie.

The answer is to diversify. Invest in fifteen or twenty great companies. Morningstar posts an excellent portfolio for Canadian investors looking for dividend income. Some banks post the Morningstar suggestions or make them available to those with self-directed portfolios.

The saying if you can't stand the heat stay out of the kitchen applies when it comes to the market. If you can't stand the heat, read huge losses, then stay out of the market.

• Invest in good, solid, dividend-paying companies
• Buy and hold
• Do not try trading. Trading is not for the inexperienced.
• Do not try timing the market. Most of us do and most of the time it does not work.
  
• Diversify: buy stock in a dozen or more companies in different sectors of the market.
• Set limits: Most agree one should not invest more than five percent to 10% of a portfolio in any one company.
• Do not invest money you may need in the next few year. Bear markets can last years.
• Keep a minimum of five percent in cash for emergencies. I have about ten percent at the moment.
• And be prepared to buy and hold in good times, easy, and in bad times, hard.

 

On a positive note. The market is up approximately twice as often as it is down. The up times tend to last longer than the down times. The market tends to go higher in bursts. 

Still, the down times are killers. I cannot emphasize this enough. Understand your risk tolerance. (My risk tolerance is rather poor. My wife is the gutsy one. She steers us through the bad times with aplomb.)

And I must give much deserved attribution for the two images to QuoteInspector.com.

My Million Dollar Retirement Portfolio after four months

I wrote a post entitled "Fisher Investments Canada 15 Minute Retirement Plan." I had read the Fisher brochure of the same name and disagreed with it. Disagreeing was easy but was I right in disagreeing? Could I do better? I decided to find out.

That was a little more than four months ago. I designed my own Million Dollar Portfolio based on what I had read in the Fisher brochure. Today I am up $148,750.39 and I've withdrawn $3,330 each month to emulate the money a retiree would require in order to live.

I am using the Portfolio Manager software supplied by TD Waterhouse. It is specifically designed to allow one to test their personal investment theories. If you are interested, here is the report. Click on the image, you will see the whole, uncropped image. Tap the three keys (Shift and Control and +/=) and do this all at once. The image should enlarge.

I know: "Past performance is not indicative of future results." But, it does give one a buffer. That is a fact. A nasty bear market may cut 25% from a portfolio's value--maybe even more. Clearly it is better to enter the bear market with more rather than less.

If such a catastrophe should befall my portfolio tomorrow, I would expect to bottom out at around $875,000. That's the bad news. The good news is that my income should not get cut by more than 15%. I would still see a dividend income of $31,300. 

I did the math and I should be able to invest about $26,460 in the bear market, one must take advantage of the sale on investments, and still be keep ample cash to cover the shortfall for the next four years. 

With some luck, when the bear market lumbers off, my Million Dollar Retirement Portfolio might actually be able to deliver on its 4% promise. If not, I may well still have a little cash to cover some shortfalls in the following years.

My little test has shown one thing, when you get into the market is important. In other words, luck is important. What puzzles me is this: a big firm like Fisher can, to a certain extent, make its own luck. It can under promise and then meet its self-set easy goals. Clients would be happy and Fisher would have added investment room when compared to a single investor like me.

My gut fear is that financial advisors are tempted to skim off the extra profits generated by bull markets for themselves and pass the losses of the bear markets on to the clients. I knew an advisor once who loved black and white and only black and white. Heck, even his huge, backyard pool was black with white accents. Being so addicted to fashion demanded a lot of green and this financial advisor did not seem to want in that area. My bet is not one of his clients had a pool coordinated to their favourite colour.

As portfolio values climb, dividend yields calculated as a percentage shrink

I like to say I can withdraw four percent annually from my retirement portfolio. Well, I could, in the past. Now? Maybe not. Why? The world's stock markets have soared in value. Stock prices are way up, some by more than thirty percent. But dividends have not increased lock step with the price of stock. While yields expressed in dollars have remained constant; percentage returns have tumbled.

I will withdraw only slightly more from my retirement portfolio come next January than I withdrew this year.  Stock values have climbed but the dividends as a percentage have stalled. This is not a big problem in the short term. I feel confident that there will be a correction, I will buy more stock and my dividend income will go up. As the stocks recover, I will make sure to keep about 10% in cash. Check the example:

• If holdings are worth $800,000 and dividends are $32,000, the dividend yield is four percent.
  
• If markets boom and the portfolio value climbs to $1,000,000, dividends may only grow to $33,500 and so the yield is only 3.35% .

If one is running their own retirement portfolio, they can keep an eye on the yields and make adjustments to the withdrawals when necessary. It is mainly a problem on paper.

Hey Uncle! I'm facing retirement. Any suggestions?

Retirement can be tough. Facing a life without a job is not something many of us can easily handle. What can we do to ease ourselves into retirement with a modicum of personal turmoil? Do a little planning. Take some simple actions to prepare for the inevitable -- like relax with a good book.

Hopefully, your retirement planning started decades ealier. You have opened an RRSP and possibly a TFSA, right? If you don't keep a household and personal budget, start. You must know, really know, how much you (and your partner) make and how much you (and your partner) spend.

Shortly before retiring, prepare a retirement budget. List all sources of income and all anticipated expenses. This is easier than you may think. There are lots of examples of budgets posted online. Here is a link to but one source: Get Organized (TD Canada Trust) Click on orange rectangle in top right corner.

 

Income sources:

• company pension(s)
• CPP payments
• OAS payments
  

Expenses

• income taxes
• housing related costs
  
• transportation (automobile) charges
  
• personal living expenses
  
• and more
  

If the calculations show a positive balance, you can breathe easier. If, on the other hand, the result is in the negative, this is the amount that must come from your savings that you have earmarked for retirement. It is that simple

Options:

• buy an annuity with your retirement savings
  
• work with a financial advisor
• open one or more* self-directed portfolio accounts

I believe any other options can be folded into one of the above categories. If I'm wrong, let me know. I'll correct my list.

Annuities were once the option of choice for many. Today, with interest rates so low and the risk of inflation always present, annuities are no longer the clear favourite. I will put off buying an annuity until I am between 75 and 80. At that point, I fear the risk of my losing my mental smarts is too great to ignore. An annuity supplies some insurance against future mismanagement of the wealth needed for future income.

I hate financial advisors. I was badly burned by Freedom Fifty-five and London Life. I suffered through decades of incompetence. While my personal investments were growing by leaps and bounds, my Freedom Fifty-five investments were wilting. When I retired I had to wait about a decade for London Life to release the funds and when they did they only returned 75% of my original investment. My Freedom Fifty-five RRSP investment lost money in the four digits! I'd have done better just putting the money under my mattress. That's crazy.

My favourite option is opening one or more self-directed investing accounts. An average couple in which both partners had jobs could find they need six accounts. Sounds complicated but it isn't. In fact, my investing rule is KISS (Keep It Simple Stupid). 

The easiest answer is to invest in some good, high dividend paying stocks and put the remainder in an All-in-One ETF. There are a number of these complete portfolio ETFs. Do your research and take your pick. The three ETFs listed below all exhibit low bond content. For more bond exposure, look for the BAL rather than GRO ending. (Note: The TD ETFs do not follow this pattern.)

• TOCA
• VGRO
• XGRO
• ZGRO

If skipping all investment in bonds is your goal, do not despair. There are pure equity All-in-One ETFs. The iShares offering is XEQT. It delivers lots of exposure to U.S. equities and Canadian plus lots of international exposure as well and no bonds. None. XEQT yields 2.14% today. This changes daily.

• United States 45.97%
• Canada 23.15%
• Japan 5.99%
• United Kingdom 3.17%
• Switzerland 2.25%
• France 2.23%
• China 2.19%
• Germany 2.00%
• Australia 1.95%
• Netherlands 1.24%
• Cash and/or Derivatives 0.72%
• Other 9.11%
  

I could not live on a yield of three percent, as suggested to me by a number of financial advisors. I must have a minimum of 3-4% to balance my books in retirement. And getting by on 3-4% is just that--getting by. I'd have go cut my expenses to the bone. It would be painful. I aim to withdraw at least four percent annually from my retirement savings and have done so for the past 12 years. And despite the withdrawals, my principal has almost doubled during my retirement. 

The recent exceedingly high stock prices are driving down dividend yields when expressed as a percentage yield. This is putting lie to my claim of insisting on a 4% yield. The cash payments have gone up a little, not much, but a little. If these payments were adequate in 2020, these payments will be fine in 2021 as well and falling percentage yield be damned.

If I were just starting out and I wanted a true KISS portfolio, I'd mix XEQT, or something like it, with a good mix of the highest dividend paying stocks on the Morningstar Canada Income Pick List. Always use the most up-to-date list. There is a new list released every month. 

I'd keep at least 10% in cash, maybe more today, in anticipation of a correction. I would then buckle my seat-belt and prepare for the ride of my life. And never ever forget that oh-so-applicable advice from The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy: "Don't Panic!"

 

_________________________________________________________________

* It is not difficult for a husband and wife to find themselves with six self-directed accounts.

1. Husband's RIF account. An RRSP becomes a RIF (Retirement Income Fund) at age 71.
   
2. Wife's RIF account.
3. Husband's TFSA.
4. Wife's TFSA.
5. Husband's non-registered account. Called cash accounts.
6. Wife's non-registered account. 

And be aware that a company pension plan may convert into an LRIF at retirement. An LRIF is a Locked-in Retirement Income Fund. That LRIF could become a seventh self-directed portfolio.

Some stocks are on sale

Some of the dividend paying stocks that I watch are presently on sale and I think the bargains may get even better in the coming days.

• BCE has a dividend yield of 6.38% and is off its high of the past year by 14.8%.
  
• EMA has a dividend yield of 5.10% and is off its high of the past year by 17.8%.
• ENB has a dividend yield of 7.52% and is off its high of the past year by 18.8%.
• FTS has a dividend yield of 4.05% and is off its high of the past year by 15.2%.
• TRP has a dividend yield of 6.14% and is off its high of the past year by 25%.

Nothing in life is one hundred percent safe. There is always risk. Think Nortel if you need an example to encourage you to set limits on how much you invest in any one equity. That said, I have no problem investing up to five percent of my portfolio in any of the above stocks.

If you invested $10,000 in each of the five stocks, you would reap an annual payment of something in the neighbourhood of $2919 (5.838% averaged dividend yield).

If you still have money to invest, be patient. I'm sure there will be opportunities to buy Telus and a number of the Canadian banks on dips. I insist on a 4% dividend yield. After that, I'm cool. (For instance, Telus today is yielding 4.80%.)

And if investing in a pipeline like Enbridge (ENB) seems wrong to you, you don't know Enbridge. The pipeline giant is building wind farms off the French coast. Enbridge is going green.

https://renewablesnow.com/news/edf-enbridge-and-wpd-ready-to-start-building-450-mw-french-wind-farm-732022/

Useful

https://www.td.com/ca/en/asset-management/resources/graphing-tool/

 

https://einvestingforbeginners.com/lump-sum-calculator-ashul/Lump Sum Calculator: Investing Now vs Later (with Dollar Cost Averaging) 

With each year that passes, the difference between the strategies increases more and more in favor of the lump sum investing style. 

 

 https://www.aaii.com/journal/article/13583-how-much-risk-can-you-handle-and-still-meet-your-goals

How Much Risk Can You Handle and Still Meet Your Goals?

 

Read the not so fine print

Banks are not out to bamboozle you. That said, the English language as used by financial institutions does not always mean what you may think. Growth can mean increased risk and a managed income portfolio fund can be a warning to look carefully. It may be heavily weighted towards bonds.

The above graph shows the growth of two similar investments made in early 2013. The green line represents an investment in the simple, relatively inexpensive fund: TD Monthly Income fund (TDB622). The original investment can be as little as $100.

The purple line shows the growth of the TD Managed Income Portfolio. An investor in this fund had to make a minimum $150,000 initial investment. As can be seen from the above graph the TD Monthly Income fund is up 34% today. The fund that points out that it is managed, aren't most mutual funds in one way or another, and insists on an initial deposit of $150,000, is up only 22% over the same time period. Why? Bonds. The managed fund contains far more bonds. 

The names are similar but these funds are not comparable.

Does this mean one should own TDB622? I think not. I'd look for something that doesn't hold a lot of bonds, something like XEQT. This iShares ETF holds only equities, and it's a good mix of equities with U.S., International and Canadian companies all represented.

 If you insist on holding some bonds, I'd be more inclined to put a small amount in a GIC or even in a cash account where it could await a correction and be available for immediate redeployment back into the market at fire sale prices. 

There are some extremely short term bond ETFs for die hard bond fans. Let me suggest looking at XSQ, the iShares Short Term High Quality Canadian Bond Index. It is yielding 2.19% today. (In the interest of full disclosure, I once owned XBB and was satisfied with its performance. Today XBB is yielding 2.81%. XBB is more volatile than XSQ but it is nowhere near as volatile as equities.