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My latest crack at a "Retirement Portfolio"

Wednesday, August 28, 2024

My alternative to a portfolio manager

I have a friend approaching 80. He is a very bright guy and so when he told me that he handed his assets over to a manager, I stopped and listened. I have steered cleared of managers since getting badly burned by London Life and its mismanagement of my accumulated insurance policy savings. Was I wrong?

My friend's manager, whom I gather collects a percentage of the investment under management, has put my friend's savings in a number of mutual funds. I assume this means he pays a fee on each mutual fund plus the overall portfolio management fee. 

All these fees sound onerous. Still, if the manager delivers returns that best an asset allocation ETF like XEQT, I can see the benefit. XEQT, a complete global equity portfolio in one ETF, has delivered strong returns over the past year. YTD return is 15.97% and the 1-year return is 22.37% when the dividend is included. The fund has an annualized return of 12% since its  2019 inception.

Is XEQT suitable for my friend? Maybe not. At his age, he is no longer comfortable with the large losses a pure equity investment can suffer. That said, XEQT has some stablemates that add bonds to the mix.

For more info please click here: All-In-One ETF Portfolios.

Like my friend, I am old. Losses that once would have been recovered with the passing of time may not be recoverable today. For an example, think of Algonquin Power and Utilites Corp. (AQN). Given enough time, say a dozen years or more, my AQN losses might be erased. Today, it is quite possible my time will run out before a full recovery is realized.

The thing is, unlike my friend, I don't care. All I am concerned with is income, dividends. To this end I invest in from 20 to 30 individual dividend paying stocks. I pretty well ignore the day to day price changes. Yes, I have lost a lot on AQN and I've lost a lot buying Telus and Bell as well. But, in the grand scheme of things, the losses are manageable and the income solid. I make more than five percent on my retirement investments.

Note: the following was copied from my spreadsheet. My investments are broken down into sectors and I try to keep my exposure to no more than the percentage shown. Each separate investment also has a cap. I will leave it to you to set your own limits. The one piece of advice I have is do not put more than five or six percent in any one stock. Generally, I start getting uncomfortable when the exposure is greater than three or four percent. An investment shown in a bold, italic font is one that I do not own at this time but it is on my buy list.

Sectors

Financials 30%
BANK OF MONTREAL 4%
BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA 3%
CDN IMPERIAL BK COMMERCE 4%
BROOKFIELD AST MGMT-A LVS 3%
BROOKFIELD CORP CL-A LVS 3%
NATIONAL BANK OF CDA 4%
ROYAL BANK OF CANADA 5%
TORONTO DOMINION BANK 4%
Total of the above 30%

Utilities 20%
ALGONQUIN PWR&UTILITIES 2%
ALTAGAS LTD 3.5%
BROOKFIELD INFRASTRUCTURE PTNRS 3.5%
CANADIAN UTILITIES LTD. 3%
EMERA INCORPORATED 4%
FORTIS INC 4%
Total of the above 20%

Communication Services 10%
BCE INC 1.5%
COGECO COMMUNICATIONS INC 1.5%
QUEBECOR INC CL-B SV 2%
ROGERS COMMUNICATIONS INC 2%
TELUS CORP 3%
Total of the above 10%

Energy 10%
ENBRIDGE INC 3.5%
PEMBINA 3%
TC ENERGY 3.5%
Total of the above 10%

REITs 8%
BMO EQL WGT REIT INDX ETF 4%
CI CANADIAN REIT ETF 4%
Total of the above 8%

U.S. S&P 500 12%
ISHRS CORE S&P500 IDX ETF 12%
Total of the above 12%

International – Mainly Europe 4%
VIDY
Total of the above 4%

Materials (Agriculture) .75%
NUTRIEN (NTR)
Total of the above .75%

Metals and Mining (Industry) 1%
LABRADOR IRON (LIF)
Total of the above 1%

Food Products (Consumer Staples) .75%
ROGERS SUGAR (RSI)
Total of the above .75%

Transportation
ALGOMA CENTRAL (ALC) .75%
MULLEN GROUP (MTL) .75%
Total of the above 1.5%

Cash 2%
Cash 2%
Total of the above 2%
Total of all -- 100%

Friday, August 9, 2024

Algonquin Power, AQN, may suffer near-term volatility

Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. (AQN) lost about a dollar on the open this morning. Is this a harbinger of stock price moves to come or has the damage been done and is it time for the healing to begin?

AQN reported its second-quarter financial results. The adjusted EBITDA increased 12% and the adjusted net earnings year-over-year rose 16%. The company has reduced its common share dividend again, this time by approximately 40% to $0.0893 per share. The reduction is somewhat larger than anticipated. This second dividend reduction continues the move towards financial prudence as AQN positions itself as a pure-play regulated utility.
 
A note here about the anticipated payout ratio. Management believes the revised $0.3572/share annual dividend will result in a payout ratio of 60%-70% once the current regulated asset base approaches its full earning potential. The closer the company comes to a 60% payout ratio, the less chance another dividend cut will occur.
 
The company also announced it is selling its renewable energy business for approximately $2.5 billion. Some investors had hoped the renewable energy business would sell for considerably more. For some, this announcement was a disappointment. Still, the sale will strengthen the AQN balance sheet as it moves its focus to being a regulated utility operation. In the long term, this transition should enhance the quality of earnings thus creating long-term value for shareholders.
 
The overall market sentiment appears cautious thanks to the dividend cut. The ongoing strategic changes only add to the uncertainty. Today the price dropped approximately a dollar on all the news. In the short term the stock could lose more share value but it probably will not be a lot as the negative news appears to be priced into the stock value now.
 
Christopher Huskilson, the current Interim CEO of Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp., is  the former CEO of Emera Inc. Huskilson has over 20 years of experience in the energy sector. Now with Huskilson at the helm, Algonquin is enjoying excellent leadership. When Huskilson expresses belief in the company's ability to improve returns and reduce external funding needs, his words inspire confidence.
 
Still, I would not buy Algonquin today. That said, I would not sell Algonquin at a loss today. There are indications that the AQN stock price may climb over the short term and, although I am not happy with it, I can live with the 4.8% dividend calculated on the closing price ($7.42) last Friday.

Tuesday, August 6, 2024

Dealing with today's falling markets

The markets all around the world have gone into tailspins. Why? There are lots of theories, all have a wee bit of truth, but no one has a compete handle on what is driving the losses. So, what does one do? I agree with The New York Times writer: do nothing. Be patient. This will pass and surprisingly soon. There is even a good chance that this global tumble will be followed by some markets actually reaching new highs.

If you have been in the market, Canadian or U.S., for some time, you can take solace in your portfolio bottom line. Even after today's crashing numbers, I bet you are very nicely in the green. Stay focused on your wins and you will get through this intact.