Saturday, September 24, 2016

Sold my OSB (Norbord) again

I have now sold my OSB (Norbord) shares for the third time. Twice I dumped them all. I am OSB free at the moment. I think Norbord may have the ability to climb even higher but I worry it will take a bit of a breather. I don't want to be caught holding the stock if a correction should appear while the stock is depressed.

In the past 12 months I have watched my TFSA grow by more than 22.5%. My posted chart does not reflect the more than $2100 removed from the plan in order to pay expenses encountered in retirement.

And I must admit that much of my wonderful return is thanks to one holding, my Norbord position. I can't say it has been easy beating the benchmark. More luck than smarts. I also have a big chunk of my savings in Dream Office REIT and it has had a terrible year. The collapse in the oil price took an awful toll on the value of its Calgary and Western Canada holdings. But D.UN pays a nice dividend which looks to be relatively secure now and so I hold on and enjoy my monthly payments.

If OSB should drop down below $31, I may consider buying in again. I believe it will have a pop in the dividend in the future. Because of this, it would not be the worst stock to get stuck holding.

Friday, September 2, 2016

Dream Office REIT

Dream Office REIT (D.UN) has had the stuffing kicked out of it. The collapse in the price of oil and the subsequent disintegration of the Calgary real estate market took a big toll on D.UN. And I have taken a big hit as well.

So, what to do. I am going to do what I have done so often in the past. I'm going to hang in there. But, I may make one change in my approach. I may try some day trading of D.UN as I have done with Norbord (OSB).

Because I like D.UN, if something goes wrong and I find myself stuck with some shares, I'll just hold. No problem. I'll sell them in the future when the time is right. In the meantime, I will enjoy the dividend.

I'm not sure that the present dividend can be trusted. The recent drop in the value of the REIT units may put the present dividend under pressure. Time will tell.

Norbord and dividend

I've been holding Norbord (OSB) off and on for more than a year. I've done nicely with the stock and I'm still quite enamored with it. Many analysts are predicting a target value far higher than today's share price. I'm not sure I see OSB hitting the highs some analysts are forecasting ($37 and $38) but I am confident that it will climb from today position with any luck at all.

What intrigues me about Norbord is its dividend potential. For many years it paid a very handsome dividend and then it began to decline. When Norbord merged its operation with Ainsworth, the dividend was cut to 40-cents a year. Well profits are now up and the synergies Norbord envisioned are all gelling. The bottom line for Norbord is solidly in the black, or so I believe.

My question today is: "How long until Norbord bumps up its dividend?" I'm beginning to see myself buying and selling Norbord for a little trading profit and then holding it for the dividend in the future. The profits made during this trading period will soften the losses, and help me ride out the lows, that will inevitably happen.

The market never climbs forever. Corrections are always lurking just around the corner.