Wednesday, July 11, 2012

Jumping ship


Over the past few weeks my portfolio has been losing value. It is now well into five figure losses since hitting its high for the year. This is decision time. Some jump the financial ship at times like this, while others stay put and ride out the storm.

Jump early and you do very well. My problem is that I can never discern "early." By the time I'm feeling queasy the worst is here and the turn around is imminent.

Some of my relatively recent purchases are still in the black. REM is up 11.32 percent. I wish I had bought more. SLF is up 4.01 percent and I'm wondering how long until it drops into the red. The bottom is dropping out of my PWT but then the entire oil/gas sector is collapsing at the moment. The CET that I thought was a bargain at $5.12 is now down almost two percent since my recent purchase. My ZUT has been dropping, but slowly; It is still in the black with an 8.7 percent gain. My China ETF and my Hong Kong one are both in the red but my Singapore ETF (EWS) is still up by more than 25 percent since I bought it some years ago.

It's nasty out there and shows signs of getting a lot worse. Will I sell? No, I will buy if I get a gut feeling a bounce is on the way. And then I'll sell what I bought on the bounce.

If you only buy stock you would be comfortable being stuck with, (the bounce may not come), it is not a terrible approach. But it is not the best one either. I tried this trading stuff a few years ago and made a small profit and then got stuck holding IPL.UN. It was a good stock and I was comfortable being "stuck" with it. It delivered very good dividends and recently I sold my last holdings for more the $20.

As the markets around the world drop in value, I'm looking at what I own, and what I wish I owned, and looking for the right stock and the right moment to take a stronger position. I worry we are heading into uncharted waters and I worry I should have given more thought to "jumping ship."
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I figure oil, if not natural gas, will stage a comeback within a year or two. I'm looking at oily investments that will pay me a dividend while I wait for the turnaround. I heard comments on BNN yesterday that it could be late 2013 before oil gets back into three digit territory. And one must be prepared for oil patch companies to cut dividends as oil continues to dip below $85.

If some of my non oil investments drop a lot, I will consider adding to my position. I liked them enough to buy them once, I may find I like them enough to buy them twice.

One stock I have been following is: Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners L.P. (BEP.UN-T) The Daily Edge posted today by the ScotiaBank said: "We are raising our target price by $0.50 to $32.50 per share and maintaining our 1-Sector Outperform rating." That's enough to whet my interest. That and the 4.8 percent yield.

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